Market update

Gold is an important part of central banks’ foreign exchange (FX) reserves. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), at the end of H1 2018 central banks collectively owned US$1.36tn of gold, around 10% of global FX reserves.

The 2005-2013 boom in Chinese gold jewellery demand was followed by a fallow few years, which saw demand shrink by one third. But there are green shoots of recovery emerging.

India, a nation that accounts for around a fifth of annual global gold demand, has a long history of gold-focused policies. These, however, have often distorted the market rather than achieving policymakers’ aims. Announcements in the Union Budget on 1 February 2018, however, suggest this might change.

Changes are afoot in the technology sector. Smartphones are becoming increasingly powerful, electric and self-driving vehicles could revolutionise the automotive industry, and emerging nanotechnology could transform solar energy. All of this could have a positive impact on gold demand.

Germany’s gold investment market has boomed in the past 10 years. In the face of successive financial crises and loose monetary policy, German investors turned to gold to protect their wealth.

On 1st July, India’s labyrinth of taxes will be replaced with a simple, nationwide Goods & Services Tax (GST). This is the biggest fiscal reform since India’s liberalisation in the early 1990s. While gold consumers will face a slightly higher tax rate, and the industry will go through a period of adjustment, we see the net impact on the gold industry as being positive. The gold supply chain should become more transparent and efficient, and the tax reform can boost economic growth, which we see as supporting gold demand.

A barrage of policy initiatives aimed at purging India of black money and instilling greater transparency rocked India’s economy last year, including its gold market. The most dramatic was the radical decision to demonetise over 15 trillion rupees, around US$220bn. 

Financial markets have fallen sharply in response to Donald Trump’s election as the 45th President of the United States. Equity markets are down notably in Asian and early European trading.

On November 2, 2016 the gold price broke above US$1,300/oz for the first time since early October, as the surprise announcement last Friday October 28th by the FBI relating to Clinton’s email probe, injected a new wave of uncertainty into the presidential election.

Following a remarkable performance year-to-date, the gold price fell by over 3% on 4 October, taking it below US$1,300/oz for the first time since the Brexit announcement in June 2016.