Gold Market Commentary and Outlook

A strong rally into month-end saw gold reach US$3,429/oz (+4%), and as of the end of August, gold was up 31% for the year. The move was supported by a weaker dollar, heightened geopolitical tensions, robust gold ETF inflows, and rising expectations for a September rate cut. Looking ahead, stagflationary pressures in the U.S., the prospect of lower rates, and ongoing policy risks could dominate price dynamics, even as emerging market demand takes a breather.

Gold edged up 1.7% m/m in July and remains up 28% y-t-d. The move higher was supported by rising inflation expectations linked to tariffs, though gains were partially offset by a stronger US dollar. Strong underlying fundamentals suggest that the gap between prices and COMEX positioning is more likely to narrow through increased net longs positions rather than falling prices. 

In May, tariff news and inflation helped but momentum effects including ETF outflows, countered, to leave gold flat for the month. Looking forward: Tariffs are starting to bite, but not where intended, pushing stagflation risks higher and hamstringing central banks.

Gold rose 6% m/m in April and is up by nearly 27% y-t-d. A significantly weaker US dollar and overall heightened risk pushed gold higher during the month. We expect US policy and structural risks to continue driving gold investment. Profit taking could bring pause but may also encourage consumers.

Looking back: A stronger euro and tariff fears edged gold to new highs once again in March. Looking ahead: fiscal and monetary support may be receding, and the timing isn’t great for risk assets given the liberation day turmoil. But gold could benefit further and despite a strong rally, fundamentals remain solid.

Gold hit new highs in February, supported by a weaker US dollar and extending its y-t-d gains to 9%. Rising inflation expectations, lower rates, and continued geoeconomic uncertainty are playing in gold’s favour.  

Gold punched through all-time-highs at the end of January with tariff fears, a weaker dollar and softer bond yields all contributing. Chinese gold market activity stayed true to its typical seasonal January strength and analysis suggests positive follow-through into February.

Gold gave back less than expected due to a strong dollar and profit-taking, as a positive outlook and higher risk constrained outflows.

The start of November saw gold pressured by higher opportunity costs and a Republican clean sweep. Stronger bond yields and US dollar, risk-on in equities, a boost to cryptocurrencies and quelling of geopolitical risk might see a near-term retracement in gold.

Gold posted a 3.6% gain in August driven by lower rates and a weaker US dollar. Mixed data releases have made the direction of global economy less certain and gold options indicate that investors may be hedging against a combination of more aggressive rate cuts and US election uncertainty.