Investment Insights

In Q4 2018, as global stock markets experienced their worst quarter since 2009, cryptocurrencies had a prime opportunity to demonstrate qualities associated with safe havens like gold. However, cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, behaved like risky assets and fell while gold rallied.

As we look ahead, we expect that the interplay between market risk and economic growth in 2019 will drive gold demand. And we explore key trends that will influence its price performance.

Against the backdrop of turbulent markets, geopolitical risk and Fed rates hikes, gold closed 2018 on a strong note, outperforming most global asset classes.

The IMF Global Financial Stability report, released on 10 October, highlighted an increase in the level of risk among multiple global metrics. Following its publication, stocks in the US, Europe and Asia lost 4%, 3% and 4% respectively over three days. 

Gold has fallen to a 20-month low amid sharp EM currency depreciation. At these levels, we believe the gold price may bounce back. Consumer demand is likely to be supportive in H2. And short positioning may quickly reverse should one of the many current macroeconomic risks materialise, increasing investment demand.

Gold rose by more than 4% in the first few months of 2018, only to finish June down by the same amount. Gold’s price momentum and investor positioning in derivatives markets accelerated this descent, but we believe that there may be reasons to be optimistic. Key macroeconomic trends developing in the second half of 2018 may spur investor demand and opportunistic buying.

Gold 2048 brings together industry-leading experts from across the globe to analyse how the gold market is set to evolve in the next 30 years with key insights from authors such as George Magnus, senior economist; Rick Lacaille, Global Chief Investment Officer of State Street Global Advisors; and Michelle Ash, Chief Innovation Officer at Barrick Gold.

Over the long run, economic growth is a key driver of gold demand, especially in emerging market countries where there is high affinity for gold as jewellery and investment. At the same time, gold tends to perform well in period of crisis.