Investment Insights

Gold tagged its 53^rd all-time PM price high for the year of US$4,449/oz on 23 December, before closing the year at US$4,368/oz. It was a stellar finish to a stellar year – posting a December return of 4.2% to take the full year return to 67%. Relatively stable FX led to similar returns across major currencies.

Gold has experienced a remarkable 2025, achieving over 50 all-time highs and returning more than 60% as of the end of November, driven by heightened risk, dollar weakness and price momentum.

A momentum flush out and stronger dollar contributed to a see-saw for gold from its 50th all-time high. But gold still managed good gains in October.

The growing role of alternatives in institutional portfolios reflects a search for better returns and diversification. But these benefits come with trade-offs—like illiquidity and lagged valuations. This paper shows how gold can play a valuable complementary role. Its liquidity, low correlation, and performance during market stress make it a useful shock absorber alongside less liquid assets.

Gold has experienced an extended period of bull run since late 2022, prompting questions about potential catalysis for change in trend. Cooling risks, rising opportunity costs and easing momentum might curb gold’s current strength, while structural changes in gold demand or supply may bring longer-term weakness.

In May, tariff news and inflation helped but momentum effects including ETF outflows, countered, to leave gold flat for the month. Looking forward: Tariffs are starting to bite, but not where intended, pushing stagflation risks higher and hamstringing central banks.

Gold rose 6% m/m in April and is up by nearly 27% y-t-d. A significantly weaker US dollar and overall heightened risk pushed gold higher during the month. We expect US policy and structural risks to continue driving gold investment. Profit taking could bring pause but may also encourage consumers.