Investment Insights

Gold has experienced an extended period of bull run since late 2022, prompting questions about potential catalysis for change in trend. Cooling risks, rising opportunity costs and easing momentum might curb gold’s current strength, while structural changes in gold demand or supply may bring longer-term weakness.

In May, tariff news and inflation helped but momentum effects including ETF outflows, countered, to leave gold flat for the month. Looking forward: Tariffs are starting to bite, but not where intended, pushing stagflation risks higher and hamstringing central banks.

Gold rose 6% m/m in April and is up by nearly 27% y-t-d. A significantly weaker US dollar and overall heightened risk pushed gold higher during the month. We expect US policy and structural risks to continue driving gold investment. Profit taking could bring pause but may also encourage consumers.

Gold hit new highs in February, supported by a weaker US dollar and extending its y-t-d gains to 9%. Rising inflation expectations, lower rates, and continued geoeconomic uncertainty are playing in gold’s favour.  

Gold punched through all-time-highs at the end of January with tariff fears, a weaker dollar and softer bond yields all contributing. Chinese gold market activity stayed true to its typical seasonal January strength and analysis suggests positive follow-through into February.

Gold gave back less than expected due to a strong dollar and profit-taking, as a positive outlook and higher risk constrained outflows.

Gold is poised for its best annual performance in more than a decade – up 28% through November. Behind this, central bank and investor buying have more than offset a notable deceleration in consumer demand.

While gold’s contribution to managing portfolio risk is well established, its contribution to portfolio return is not. Our analysis shows that gold responds to both an economic and a financial component. And that its long-term return is not only well above inflation but more closely linked to GDP than previously understood.

August has typically been kind to gold, but seasonal winds are up against strong cross currents, that on balance look much more supportive than not.