What's a bear case for gold: A historical perspective

Gold has experienced an extended period of bull run since late 2022, prompting questions about potential catalysis for change in trend. Cooling risks, rising opportunity costs and easing momentum might curb gold’s current strength, while structural changes in gold demand or supply may bring longer-term weakness.

Gold Market Commentary: Let them eat tariffs

In May, tariff news and inflation helped but momentum effects including ETF outflows, countered, to leave gold flat for the month. Looking forward: Tariffs are starting to bite, but not where intended, pushing stagflation risks higher and hamstringing central banks.

Gold Market Commentary: A risk-induced premium that may linger

Gold rose 6% m/m in April and is up by nearly 27% y-t-d. A significantly weaker US dollar and overall heightened risk pushed gold higher during the month. We expect US policy and structural risks to continue driving gold investment. Profit taking could bring pause but may also encourage consumers.

Gold Demand Trends: Q1 2025

A sharp upsurge in gold ETF investment, along with elevated bar and coin buying, drove total Q1 gold demand to 1,206t - its highest for a first quarter since 2016. Jewellery consumption was contrastingly weak as the gold price hit successive new record highs during the quarter.

Gold Market Commentary: Snakes and ladders

Gold punched through all-time-highs at the end of January with tariff fears, a weaker dollar and softer bond yields all contributing. Chinese gold market activity stayed true to its typical seasonal January strength and analysis suggests positive follow-through into February.

Gold's long-term expected return (GLTER)

While gold’s contribution to managing portfolio risk is well established, its contribution to portfolio return is not. Our analysis shows that gold responds to both an economic and a financial component. And that its long-term return is not only well above inflation but more closely linked to GDP than previously understood.