Last week’s economic updates highlighted uneven global momentum. US consumer sentiment dipped close to record lows, and European central banks kept rates steady. China’s exports fell and Japan’s manufacturing slowed, whereas India’s manufacturing gained pace.
Major global equities mostly closed lower, dragged down by tech stocks, while benchmark Treasury yields remained flat and both the dollar and oil weakened.
A firming US dollar has added to recent headwinds for gold, helped by tightening liquidity in funding markets (COTW). But the Fed may already be stepping in to ease these pressures. In parallel, an end to the US government shutdown is in sight after a key senate vote over the weekend. These two actions could open the liquidity spigot. Add a hint of tariff dividend to boost depressed sentiment and risk assets could gather momentum into year end. Gold might not benefit from improved sentiment, but liquidity and a resumption of a dollar down trend could help.
Chart of the Week: Dollar bounce concluded?
Data to 8 November 2025. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Recently, I joined Asharq Business on Bloomberg TV to discuss the latest developments in the anticipated US-China trade agreement and its impact on gold within the financial landscape. While headlines often highlight short-term market reactions, a deeper analysis shows that gold’s status as a safe haven remains robust – driven by structural forces that go well beyond the immediate effects of trade negotiations.
Progress in US-China talks typically encourages investors to shift from traditional safe havens like gold into risk assets such as equities and credit. This rotation reflects improved risk sentiment and a temporary reduction in perceived global uncertainty. However, it’s important to recognise that gold’s fundamental appeal as a safe haven is not solely tied to the ups and downs of bilateral trade relations. Instead, gold’s strategic value is anchored in broader, persistent factors: elevated global debt levels, ongoing monetary policy experimentation, and the diversification needs of both institutional and central bank investors in major markets.
Recent price movements in gold – including short-term declines following positive trade headlines – should be seen as a normal feature of healthy, functioning markets. Rather than questioning whether such moves are “justified,” investors are better served by focusing on the underlying drivers – government debt, persistent inflation risks, and policy uncertainty – that continue to support gold’s long-term role as a portfolio diversifier and store of value. Central banks, in particular, have demonstrated an unwavering commitment to gold, steadily increasing their allocations as part of a broader strategy to mitigate sovereign and currency-specific risks.
A key question for many market participants is whether a US-China trade deal might accelerate or slow the role the dollar plays in broader trade relations. While a trade agreement may ease tariff tensions and improve market access, it does not address the deeper, strategic motivations behind central banks’ diversification beyond the US dollar. Performance in time of crisis, debt exposure, and the desire for a more balanced reserve asset mix are long-term structural factors that will persist regardless of incremental progress in trade relations. As such, gold’s supportive trend from greater asset diversification remains intact, with central banks likely to continue accumulating gold as a neutral, non-sovereign asset.
For investors assessing the impact on gold in the wake of a trade deal, several key indicators warrant close attention. Real yields remain the most important signal: falling real yields typically boost gold, while rising yields can exert downward pressure. The direction of the US dollar is another critical factor, as a stronger dollar often limits gold’s near-term upside. Geoeconomic risk is still top of mind, and bilaterial agreements are not currently seen as long-term solutions for investors. Additionally, trends in ETF and physical gold flows, as well as ongoing central bank purchases, provide valuable insight into investor confidence in gold’s enduring role. Finally, for regional investors – especially those in the Gulf – current conditions of high global debt and policy uncertainty reinforce the need for safe-haven assets. Gold continues to offer diversification and liquidity benefits. Rather than reacting to short-term market moves, investors should focus on fundamentals and view any dips as opportunities to reassess and strengthen their portfolios for the long term.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Last week marked the end of the longest US government shutdown, while economic updates from major economies painted a mixed picture. Meanwhile, expectations for further Fed rate cuts waned after hawkish comments from officials.
Global equity markets closed the week mixed, amid the US government re-open and concerns over AI stock valuations. Bond yields rose as expectations of the Fed’s December cut diminished, while the US dollar and oil prices softened.
Bitcoin has seen a more decisive fall to break a range of key technical supports to warn of a more important turn lower, which may well augur a further broader “risk off” tone (appendix).
This week should see the return of macro data, following the US government reopening. It is likely to create some adjustment shifts in capital markets and may even overshadow the much-awaited quarterly report from Nvidia on Wednesday. The US dollar (DXY) is set to take its cues from this data too, with interest rate differentials back in the driving seat (COTW).
Chart of the Week: Back on the wagon
Data to 17 November 2025. Yield differential (USD less ccy) weights as per DXY constituent currency weights. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Last week’s economic signals were mixed: the US posted uneven data but record corporateprofits; the Eurozone maintained steady growth, but the UK economy weakened; Japan announced a major stimulus package; China weighed property market support; and India’s trade deficit widened.
Major global equities ended the volatile week lower, driven by pullbacks in the tech sector. US Treasury yields dropped, while the dollar strengthened; oil prices eased, and Bitcoin continued its decline.
2025 has become notable for divergences: the K-shaped US economy, the K between the Mag 7 and the rest and so on. A yawning K-shaped gap has grown between bitcoin and gold highlighting the fragility of Bitcoin’s singular use case vs. gold’s varied benefits. Gold has been particularly sought after in Asia recently. With South Korea’s equities pulling back in November, investors piled into local gold ETFs. Chinese and Japanese investors also bought notable amounts of gold ETFs to hedge against local equity volatility and rising geopolitical tension.
Chart of the Week: The Special K
Data to 22 November 2025. Based on daily prices of the LBMA Gold Price PM and XBT Index. Source: Bloomberg, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Last week’s data showed strains in the US, raising expectations of a December rate cut. In Europe, near-target inflation lowered expectations of an ECB cut while UK tax hikes weighed on growth forecasts. In Asia, China’s business activity slowed while India’s Q3 growth beat expectations.
Major global equity markets closed the week higher, US Treasury yields declined, and US dollar eased on growing expectation of a Fed rate cut, while crude oil prices edged up.
Two bearish crude oil sell-side reports were released last week calling for a big drop in oil prices in 2026 and 2027. If they are right, that should help bring down gasoline prices too – a welcome boon for the ‘non-EV’ US consumer (COTW). Alongside a more likely December rate cut (88% probability vs 63% a month ago when equities peaked), a feelgood rally in risk assets to year-end gets some cause.
Lower rates probably matter more to gold than lower gas prices. Gold is close to confirming a technical “triangle” continuation pattern so a resumption of its core uptrend may be close.
Chart of the Week: Season to be tank-full
Data to 29 November 2025. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Last week highlighted sectoral divergence: services remained resilient while manufacturing struggled in major economies. The US labour market sent mixed signals, Eurozone inflation rose, Japan’s consumer spending weakened, China’s exports increased, and India cut rates. And geopolitical tensions, including those in Russia and Venezuela, showed no signs of easing.
Global equity markets delivered a mixed finish; US bond yields climbed; the dollar was steady; and oil prices increased.
We published our Gold Outlook 2026 last week, laying out potential macro scenarios and hypothetical implications for gold based on our Gold Valuation Framework. Should current macro conditions persist, gold could remain rangebound – but based on past experiences, 2026 may continue to surprise.
Gold has yet to confirm a technical “triangle” continuation pattern for a resumption of its core uptrend.
Chart of the Week: The 2026 gold outlook
Note: Historical data based on the LBMA Gold Price PM in USD as of 28 November 2025. Ranges are not price forecasts, but hypothetical illustrations of potential scenario outcomes based on our Gold Valuation Framework. ‘Macro consensus’ implies a range between -5% and 5%; ‘Shallow slip’ implies 5% to 15% upside; ‘Doom loop’ implies 15% to 30% upside; and the ‘Reflation return’ implies a 5% to 20% drop. The reference point is the average LBMA Gold Price for November 2025. For more details, see: Gold Outlook 2026. Source: Bloomberg, ICE Benchmark Administration, Oxford Economics, World Gold Council
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Last week was a busy period for central banks: the Fed cut as expected while the Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, and Swiss National Bank held rates steady. Economic data showed slowing growth in the UK and Japan, persistent deflation and weak credit expansion in China, and a modest rise in retail inflation in India.
Global equity markets ended mixed, while US Treasury yields rose broadly, steepening the yield curve. The US dollar remained soft, and oil prices declined
The DXY remains under pressure. With a large technical top still in place following the break below its 2023 and 2024 lows, a retest of key support from its long-term uptrend from 2011 is likely (C.O.T.W).
Gold looks to have now confirmed a technical “triangle” continuation pattern for a resumption of its core uptrend.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Volatility: While gold’s volatility rose in 2025, it did so from a low base and in line with other assets; gold’s vol seems to have normalized, remaining broadly in line with long-term averages.
Portfolio diversification: Despite this increase, adding gold to a diversified portfolio continues to help reduce overall risk, especially in an environment where correlation between bonds and equities has risen.
Yes, volatility rose in 2025…just like other growth assets and in line with historical averages
Amid tariff uncertainties, inflationary pressures and geoeconomic strife, there is no shortage of market, macro and geopolitical risks to feed market volatility. To get a sense of the turmoil navigated by investors this year compared to last, Chart 1 shows the realised volatility of gold, US stocks and US Treasuries. Volatility has increased in both equity and gold markets, on the back of a supercharged geopolitical and geoeconomic enviromnent, with a significant surge in equity volatility around the initial tariffs announcement earlier in 2025. US treasury volatility on the other hand has been on a declining trend. On the whole, all asset class volatilities remain broadly in line with their long-term averages.
Chart 1: Equity and gold volatility have increased in 2025…but gold’s vol is below average
1-year rolling weekly annualised volatility for US stocks, European stocks, US treasuries, silver and gold*
*Data as of 15 December 2025. Indices used: Bloomberg US Treasury Index, MSCI US Index, MSCI Europe Index, LBMA Silver Price, and LBMA Gold Price. Dashed lines represent the 20-year average volatility for the indices used. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
While gold’s volatility has risen alongside its strong price rally this year, it remains broadly in line with its long-term average and well below levels seen during previous periods of similar strong price performance (Chart 2). This suggests that, despite recent price strength, gold has moved in an orderly manner.
Chart 2: Despite the uptick in volatility in 2025, gold’s annualised volatility remains well below previous highs
Annualised gold volatility and returns*
*Data from 1 January 1971 to 12 December 2025. Annualised volatility is calculated using weekly returns. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
What has this meant for portfolios?
The uptick in volatility across equities coupled with a positive correlation between stocks and bonds, has led to higher portfolio risk – a wake up call for investors to find alternative ways to manage portfolio volatility. This has become especially important now that we live in a world of diminishing diversfication benefits (Chart 3).
However, we know that gold has been an efficient source of portfolio diversification with it’s low correlation to equities and fixed income assets (Chart 4).
Chart 3: The benefits of diversification have moderated over time, but it’s better with gold…
Portfolio diversification benefit, rolling 36m*
*Data from 31 December 1993 to 28 November 2025. Portfolio (without/with gold): US equities (35%/33.3%), EAFE equities (10%/9.5%), EM equities (10%/9.5%), US Aggregate bonds (30%/28.5%), US HY (5%/4.8%), REITS (10%/9.5%), Gold (0%/5%) rebalanced monthly. Diversification is calculated as %reduction in risk between weighted sum of asset volatilities and total portfolio volatility. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Chart 4:…and has pushed investors to explore new uncorrelated assets like gold in their portfolios
Rolling 36m correlation*
*Data from 31 December 1993 to 28 November 2025. Indices used: Bloomberg US Treasury Index, MSCI US Index and LBMA Gold Price Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Inflation and economic growth uncertainties affect stock-bond correlations differently: inflation shocks typically lead to positive bond-equity correlations due to its adverse effects on both asset classes; economic growth uncertainty on the other hand drives negative correlations as investors seek safety in bonds while stocks can suffer. We are currently in a low Growth vol/Inflation vol ratio environment, a signal of dominant inflation concerns.
Chart 5: Inflation is the dominant macro variable
Ratio of Growth/Inflation uncertainty and stock-bond correlation*
*Data 31 December 1973 to 30 September 2025. Growth/Inflation ratio was calculated using industrial production for growth volatility and US CPI for inflation volatility. Stock-bond correlation was calculated using S&P500 Index and Bloomberg US Treasury Index. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
In this current environment, adding gold to our hypothetical portfolio1 reduces the overall portfolio risk. In fact, adding 5% of gold reduces the portfolio risk by nearly 5% while its contribution to overall portfolio risk is negligible at 1.9% (Chart 6).
Chart 6: Portfolio risk has risen post 2022, but adding gold can reduce overall risk
Risk contribution and portfolio volatility during different regimes
*Data from 31 December 2010 to 28 November 2025. Portfolio (without/with gold): US equities (35%/33.3%), EAFE equities (10%/9.5%), EM equities (10%/9.5%), US Aggregate bonds (30%/28.5%), US HY (5%/4.8%), REITS (10%/9.5%), Gold (0%/5%) rebalanced monthly. Risk contribution is calculated by multiplying each asset class weight by its weighted covariance with other assets, then dividing by the portfolio variance. Portfolio risk represents the volatility of the entire portfolio over the predefined periods shown on the chart. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
In summary
In a turbulent year marked by heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, gold’s volatility has increased alongside that of other assets, including major equity indices. That said, its long-term behaviour has remained broadly consistent, and comparable to that of other growth assets.
While short-term surges in price and trading activity led to brief spikes in volatility, these episodes quickly normalised, underscoring gold’s resilience as a strategic asset.
Against a backdrop where traditional diversification benefits are waning, gold continues to play a valuable role in reducing overall portfolio risk, reinforcing its importance for investors seeking stability amid uncertainty.
Footnotes
1The hypothetical portfolio shown in Chart 6 represents just one combination of assets; other combinations may produce different results.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Weekly Markets Monitor: Open the spigots
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the Week: Dollar bounce concluded?
Data to 8 November 2025. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
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© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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Gold’s role amid US-China trade developments: A strategic perspective
Joseph Cavatoni
Senior Market Strategist, North America World Gold CouncilRecently, I joined Asharq Business on Bloomberg TV to discuss the latest developments in the anticipated US-China trade agreement and its impact on gold within the financial landscape. While headlines often highlight short-term market reactions, a deeper analysis shows that gold’s status as a safe haven remains robust – driven by structural forces that go well beyond the immediate effects of trade negotiations.
Progress in US-China talks typically encourages investors to shift from traditional safe havens like gold into risk assets such as equities and credit. This rotation reflects improved risk sentiment and a temporary reduction in perceived global uncertainty. However, it’s important to recognise that gold’s fundamental appeal as a safe haven is not solely tied to the ups and downs of bilateral trade relations. Instead, gold’s strategic value is anchored in broader, persistent factors: elevated global debt levels, ongoing monetary policy experimentation, and the diversification needs of both institutional and central bank investors in major markets.
Recent price movements in gold – including short-term declines following positive trade headlines – should be seen as a normal feature of healthy, functioning markets. Rather than questioning whether such moves are “justified,” investors are better served by focusing on the underlying drivers – government debt, persistent inflation risks, and policy uncertainty – that continue to support gold’s long-term role as a portfolio diversifier and store of value. Central banks, in particular, have demonstrated an unwavering commitment to gold, steadily increasing their allocations as part of a broader strategy to mitigate sovereign and currency-specific risks.
A key question for many market participants is whether a US-China trade deal might accelerate or slow the role the dollar plays in broader trade relations. While a trade agreement may ease tariff tensions and improve market access, it does not address the deeper, strategic motivations behind central banks’ diversification beyond the US dollar. Performance in time of crisis, debt exposure, and the desire for a more balanced reserve asset mix are long-term structural factors that will persist regardless of incremental progress in trade relations. As such, gold’s supportive trend from greater asset diversification remains intact, with central banks likely to continue accumulating gold as a neutral, non-sovereign asset.
For investors assessing the impact on gold in the wake of a trade deal, several key indicators warrant close attention. Real yields remain the most important signal: falling real yields typically boost gold, while rising yields can exert downward pressure. The direction of the US dollar is another critical factor, as a stronger dollar often limits gold’s near-term upside. Geoeconomic risk is still top of mind, and bilaterial agreements are not currently seen as long-term solutions for investors. Additionally, trends in ETF and physical gold flows, as well as ongoing central bank purchases, provide valuable insight into investor confidence in gold’s enduring role. Finally, for regional investors – especially those in the Gulf – current conditions of high global debt and policy uncertainty reinforce the need for safe-haven assets. Gold continues to offer diversification and liquidity benefits. Rather than reacting to short-term market moves, investors should focus on fundamentals and view any dips as opportunities to reassess and strengthen their portfolios for the long term.
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Weekly Markets Monitor: Return of the Mac(ro)
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the Week: Back on the wagon
Data to 17 November 2025. Yield differential (USD less ccy) weights as per DXY constituent currency weights.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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Weekly Markets Monitor: AI fears and the Special K
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the Week: The Special K
Data to 22 November 2025. Based on daily prices of the LBMA Gold Price PM and XBT Index.
Source: Bloomberg, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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Weekly Markets Monitor: Season to be tank-full
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the Week: Season to be tank-full
Data to 29 November 2025.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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Weekly Markets Monitor: The 2026 gold outlook
Weekly Markets Monitor
Chart of the Week: The 2026 gold outlook
Note: Historical data based on the LBMA Gold Price PM in USD as of 28 November 2025. Ranges are not price forecasts, but hypothetical illustrations of potential scenario outcomes based on our Gold Valuation Framework. ‘Macro consensus’ implies a range between -5% and 5%; ‘Shallow slip’ implies 5% to 15% upside; ‘Doom loop’ implies 15% to 30% upside; and the ‘Reflation return’ implies a 5% to 20% drop. The reference point is the average LBMA Gold Price for November 2025. For more details, see: Gold Outlook 2026.
Source: Bloomberg, ICE Benchmark Administration, Oxford Economics, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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Weekly Markets Monitor: Top of the morning
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the Week: The USD – Top of the morning
Source: Bloomberg
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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You asked, we answered: Is gold’s appeal fading on rising vol?
Taylor Burnette
Research Lead, Americas World Gold CouncilJeremy De Pessemier
Asset Allocation Strategist World Gold CouncilHighlights:
Volatility: While gold’s volatility rose in 2025, it did so from a low base and in line with other assets; gold’s vol seems to have normalized, remaining broadly in line with long-term averages.
Portfolio diversification: Despite this increase, adding gold to a diversified portfolio continues to help reduce overall risk, especially in an environment where correlation between bonds and equities has risen.
Yes, volatility rose in 2025…just like other growth assets and in line with historical averages
Amid tariff uncertainties, inflationary pressures and geoeconomic strife, there is no shortage of market, macro and geopolitical risks to feed market volatility. To get a sense of the turmoil navigated by investors this year compared to last, Chart 1 shows the realised volatility of gold, US stocks and US Treasuries. Volatility has increased in both equity and gold markets, on the back of a supercharged geopolitical and geoeconomic enviromnent, with a significant surge in equity volatility around the initial tariffs announcement earlier in 2025. US treasury volatility on the other hand has been on a declining trend. On the whole, all asset class volatilities remain broadly in line with their long-term averages.
Chart 1: Equity and gold volatility have increased in 2025…but gold’s vol is below average
1-year rolling weekly annualised volatility for US stocks, European stocks, US treasuries, silver and gold*
*Data as of 15 December 2025. Indices used: Bloomberg US Treasury Index, MSCI US Index, MSCI Europe Index, LBMA Silver Price, and LBMA Gold Price. Dashed lines represent the 20-year average volatility for the indices used.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
While gold’s volatility has risen alongside its strong price rally this year, it remains broadly in line with its long-term average and well below levels seen during previous periods of similar strong price performance (Chart 2). This suggests that, despite recent price strength, gold has moved in an orderly manner.
Chart 2: Despite the uptick in volatility in 2025, gold’s annualised volatility remains well below previous highs
Annualised gold volatility and returns*
*Data from 1 January 1971 to 12 December 2025. Annualised volatility is calculated using weekly returns.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
What has this meant for portfolios?
The uptick in volatility across equities coupled with a positive correlation between stocks and bonds, has led to higher portfolio risk – a wake up call for investors to find alternative ways to manage portfolio volatility. This has become especially important now that we live in a world of diminishing diversfication benefits (Chart 3).
However, we know that gold has been an efficient source of portfolio diversification with it’s low correlation to equities and fixed income assets (Chart 4).
Chart 3: The benefits of diversification have moderated over time, but it’s better with gold…
Portfolio diversification benefit, rolling 36m*
*Data from 31 December 1993 to 28 November 2025. Portfolio (without/with gold): US equities (35%/33.3%), EAFE equities (10%/9.5%), EM equities (10%/9.5%), US Aggregate bonds (30%/28.5%), US HY (5%/4.8%), REITS (10%/9.5%), Gold (0%/5%) rebalanced monthly. Diversification is calculated as %reduction in risk between weighted sum of asset volatilities and total portfolio volatility.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Chart 4:…and has pushed investors to explore new uncorrelated assets like gold in their portfolios
Rolling 36m correlation*
*Data from 31 December 1993 to 28 November 2025. Indices used: Bloomberg US Treasury Index, MSCI US Index and LBMA Gold Price
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Inflation and economic growth uncertainties affect stock-bond correlations differently: inflation shocks typically lead to positive bond-equity correlations due to its adverse effects on both asset classes; economic growth uncertainty on the other hand drives negative correlations as investors seek safety in bonds while stocks can suffer. We are currently in a low Growth vol/Inflation vol ratio environment, a signal of dominant inflation concerns.
Chart 5: Inflation is the dominant macro variable
Ratio of Growth/Inflation uncertainty and stock-bond correlation*
*Data 31 December 1973 to 30 September 2025. Growth/Inflation ratio was calculated using industrial production for growth volatility and US CPI for inflation volatility. Stock-bond correlation was calculated using S&P500 Index and Bloomberg US Treasury Index.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
In this current environment, adding gold to our hypothetical portfolio1 reduces the overall portfolio risk. In fact, adding 5% of gold reduces the portfolio risk by nearly 5% while its contribution to overall portfolio risk is negligible at 1.9% (Chart 6).
Chart 6: Portfolio risk has risen post 2022, but adding gold can reduce overall risk
Risk contribution and portfolio volatility during different regimes
*Data from 31 December 2010 to 28 November 2025. Portfolio (without/with gold): US equities (35%/33.3%), EAFE equities (10%/9.5%), EM equities (10%/9.5%), US Aggregate bonds (30%/28.5%), US HY (5%/4.8%), REITS (10%/9.5%), Gold (0%/5%) rebalanced monthly. Risk contribution is calculated by multiplying each asset class weight by its weighted covariance with other assets, then dividing by the portfolio variance. Portfolio risk represents the volatility of the entire portfolio over the predefined periods shown on the chart.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
In summary
In a turbulent year marked by heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, gold’s volatility has increased alongside that of other assets, including major equity indices. That said, its long-term behaviour has remained broadly consistent, and comparable to that of other growth assets.
While short-term surges in price and trading activity led to brief spikes in volatility, these episodes quickly normalised, underscoring gold’s resilience as a strategic asset.
Against a backdrop where traditional diversification benefits are waning, gold continues to play a valuable role in reducing overall portfolio risk, reinforcing its importance for investors seeking stability amid uncertainty.
Footnotes
1The hypothetical portfolio shown in Chart 6 represents just one combination of assets; other combinations may produce different results.
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.