The past year has seen a dynamic tapestry of events, each thread shaping investor sentiment and asset performance. US and Australian elections stirred local markets, while ongoing geopolitical tensions kept global investors cautious (Chart 1). The US Federal Reserve initiated an easing cycle with three rate cuts totalling 100 basis points, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held rates steady, lagging its peers.
Chart 1: Relentless parade of geopolitical risks cast a shadow over the global landscape
Geopolitical risk index*
*As of 24 January 2025 on a five-day rolling average basis. Source: GPR, World Gold Council
Assets put in a varied performance (Chart 2). The AUD weakened by 10% against the dollar – the widening US-Australia yield spread, particularly in Q4 amid diverging stances from the Fed and the RBA, was a key contributor.1 Local equities finished the year stronger and Australian properties also powered higher.2
Gold, denominated in AUD, held the lead in 2024 with a stunning 38% surge. Strong investment demand, rising geopolitical risks and a weaker AUD supported gold’s rally. And similar drivers are extending gold’s strength into 2025, delivering a 4.9% return so far.
Chart 2: Gold held the lead against a mixed performance from assets
Various asset performance in AUD during 2024*
*As of end December 2024 and 24 January 2025. Based on LBMA Gold Price PM, MSCI World Index, ASX REITs Index, Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index, ASX300 Index, FTSE Global Infrastructure Index, Bloomberg AusBond Composite Index, Bloomberg Global Agg Index and FTSE Nareit Developed Index. All calculations in AUD. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
2025 outlook: a case for gold in AUD to thrive?
This year is likely to be supportive for gold. As our 2025 Gold Outlook noted, while US Treasury yields and the dollar may stay elevated, upside potential for gold could come from continued central bank gold purchases and possible spikes in geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, volatility in equities and bonds, as well as potential weakness in non-US currencies, could provide additional boosts to investment demand for gold. And as uncertainty in the US bond market stay elevated, we believe the impact from yield changes may be less pronounced on gold, as our recent analysis demonstrates.
Furthermore, we believe potential weakness in the Australian dollar may provide an additional boost to gold in local currency terms. Such currency weakness may stem from two main fronts:
1. Changes in monetary policy expectations
Although the RBA left rates unchanged in its December meeting, it was noted that growth momentum had weakened and the upside risk of inflation had diminished.3 And while labour market prints may muddy the case for a cut in February, more weight in that decision may come from Q4 inflation data which shows cooling momentum. The market is currently pricing in over 80bps cuts for 2025, much higher than the previous expectation (Chart 3).4
In contrast, reflation concerns in the US and the surprising strength in both growth and labour market data have seen investors push back their expectations of further rate cuts – the market is now only pricing in around 50bps rate reduction in 2025, a pivotal change from around 100bps in December (Chart 3).
This could mean that the RBA will deliver more rate cuts than the Fed, further widening the interest rate spread between the two countries, weighing on the AUD.
Chart 3: Diverging rate expectations for 2025
Policy rate expectations reflected in OIS futures*
*Expected policy rates after each planned policy meeting in 2025 as of the end of November 2024 (purple) and end of December 2024 (blue). Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
2. Potential growth risk
Restrictive financial conditions, declining real income and cooling momentum in the housing sector all weighed on Australian growth in 2024. Even if markets are right about cuts, the absolute level of rates and their lagged impacts could continue to chip away at the economy’s resilience. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding Chinese economic development may also pose challenges – especially if the Trump trade war hits V2.0.5 As historical data shows, sluggish growth usually leads to a weakening local currency.
Other risks such as geopolitical challenges may also induce volatility in local assets, creating stress for Australian portfolios. This has been a key area of concern among APAC investors. Gold’s positive outlook and its ability to cushion geopolitical risks should, we believe, make it a key asset to local portfolios (Chart 4).
Chart 4: Gold has performed well during geopolitical risk surges
Performance of various assets during geopolitical risk spikes*
*Based on average weekly performances in AUD of the LBMA Gold Price PM, Bloomberg Commodity Index, Bloomberg Australian Bond Index, Bloomberg Global Bond Aggregate Index, ASX300 Index, and MSCI World Index. We show here the average of the top 10 geopolitical risk surges based on the Geopolitical Risk Index. Source: matteoiacoviello.com, Bloomberg, World Gold Council
In conclusion, after an exceptionally strong year, we believe gold has the potential to continue to shine in 2025. Although the macro environment this year may bring some headwinds, the global geopolitical landscape and risks stemming from financial markets are certain to attract attention from official institutions and retail investors. Meanwhile, the potential risk of AUD weakness could make gold more attractive in local investors’ portfolios. And over the longer term, we anticipate that gold will deliver a stable return in line with global nominal GDP growth.
In this episode of Unearthed, World Gold Council’s Senior Market Strategists Joseph Cavatoni and John Reade analyse the latest trends in the global gold market, including its strong year-to-date performance, changing investor sentiment and gold ETF flows.
They look at what's happening in the key markets around the world, discussing the muted physical demand in North America and Europe, the potential impact of European deficit spending on the gold market, and China’s growing investment demand - particularly the recent policy shift allowing major insurers to allocate assets to gold. With macroeconomic forces in flux, Joe and John consider what could drive gold higher to US$3,000/oz and what investors should watch next.
This episode was recorded on Wednesday 12 March before gold hit US$3,000/oz on Friday 14 March.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Last week was peppered with global central bank meetings, with four out of five opting to keep rates unchanged, citing growing economic and political uncertainty. The US Fed has penciled in two rate cuts this year while the BoJ has indicated further hikes.
Global equity markets closed mostly higher. US stocks finally rebounded following weeks of declines and Europe equities also gained. Indian equities rose as investors bought dips while Chinese stock dropped. The 10-year US Treasury yields fell and the dollar rose as investors assessed the Fed’s future rate path and trade policy uncertainty.
Gold finally closed above the US$3,000/oz threshold. It has so far rejected technical resistance at $3,040/3,050/oz and the market is seen as highly overstretched, with a possible (healthy) pause in the core uptrend on the cards.
After the Fed’s decision to slow their QT pace, markets have been adjusting their expectations. On Wall Street, while some institutions see the end arriving in Q3 2025, others forecast some time in 2026. And the Polymarket betters are much more aggressive as the crypto-based platform shows a 100% possibility of QT ending by this May.
Chart of the week – QT lifeline: running out of time?
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Markets focused on trade tensions last week, as a new 25% US auto import tariff and upcoming retaliatory tariffs weighed on sentiment. Stagflation worries added to the pressure. US, Japan and UK data surprises are in stagflation territory
Global stocks fell this week, erasing earlier gains, after the US announced new tariffs. US Treasury yields held steady, while the dollar slipped on growth concerns ahead of April 2 tariff plans. Oil rose over supply fears linked to US tensions with Venezuela and Iran
Gold (XAU) rose above $3,100/oz in Asian trading Monday, maintaining its strong upward trend despite overbought signals
Stagflation fears abound on higher core PCE inflation and lower spending and consumer confidence, pushing stocks down and gold up – as we have seen in the past.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Last week, the US rattled global markets with unexpectedly aggressive reciprocal tariffs, prompting swift retaliation from China and potential countermeasures from others. The aggressive moves raised fears of slower growth, higher inflation, and job losses, overshadowing otherwise positive economic data.
Tariffs roiled markets, triggering a wave of risk-off sentiment that led to sharp declines in global equities and falling bond yields, as investors sought safe-haven assets. Surprising to some, the US dollar weakened, and oil prices fell after OPEC+’s unexpected output hike.
Amidst the massive sell-off, gold was steady – the ballast during turmoil as always – although possible liquidations to meet margin calls weighed on gold. Nonetheless, gold remains a top performer with a stunning 17% y-t-d gain.
Chart of the week – The cost of winning
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council Note: Cumulative daily returns of MSCI USA Index, Bloomberg Commodity index, Bloomberg Bitcoin Index, Bloomberg US Dollar Index, LBMA Gold Price PM, MSCI World Index, Bloomberg US Agg Index and Bloomberg Global Agg Index.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Trade tensions steered sentiment last week. Trump's temporary tariff relief boosted optimism, but mixed economic data and lingering trade uncertainty kept volatility elevated. Growth concerns prompted central banks in India, New Zealand, and the Philippines to cut.
Global stocks rebounded after the tariff pause, with US shares getting an extra boost from strong bank earnings. Treasury yields spiked and the dollar fell. And oil broke lower from its range.
Gold jumped above the US$3,200/oz, setting another record despite the sharp rise in yields. The strong trend remains intact with key technical resistance at $3,350.
Erratic tariff moves from the Trump administration exposed US assets to an increasing loss of confidence. A fire sale of US Treasuries saw the biggest weekly yield surge in decades alongside a continued decline in the US dollar.
Chart of the week – Selling the US
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council Note: cumulative daily returns of Bloomberg US Dollar Index and Bloomberg US Agg Index.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Tariff uncertainty continued to weigh on global markets last week. Weak US data and new chip export restrictions on China added to concerns. Growth worries drove ECB rate cuts while China’s economy showed resilience in Q1.
Global equities ended mixed as investors tracked trade talks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped while the US 10-year Treasury yield fell. The dollar index dipped below 100 amid reducing confidence in US assets. Oil prices rose on supply fears.
Gold has rallied to test next key technical resistance at US$3,350/oz. Investor confidence in US assets weakened further on fears Trump might fire Fed Chair Powell: the dollar plunged early Monday, sending gold to another record high.
Another nervous week awaits with Powell purge fears front and centre, Japan trade talks continuing and China standing firm.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Last week, market volatility continued, but signs of easing trade tensionsemerged. Concerns over the Fed’s independence also eased. But the IMF downgraded global and regional growth forecasts amid trade risks.
Equity and bond markets posted solid gains, with US stocks rising on strong earnings and hopes of easing trade tensions, while bond yields fell as volatility in the fixed-income market subsided. The dollar and oil prices also rose.
Gold took a breather, testing and rejecting the major US$3,500/oz psychological barrier, possibly entering a consolidation phase.
Amid the US-China trade war and the strong gold price rally y-t-d, Chinese investors are trading/buying gold at an unprecedented pace – last week, Shanghai gold futures hit all-time high volumes and Chinese gold ETFs saw record inflows.
Chart of the week - The Chinese gold rush
Source: Shanghai Futures Exchange, ETF providers, World Gold Council Based on weekly average trading volumes of gold futures/day at the Shanghai Futures Exchange and weekly inflows of Chinese gold ETFs, as of 25 April 2025.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Gold to keep lifting Australian portfolios in 2025
Ray Jia
Head of Research (Asia Pacific, ex-India) and Deputy Head of Trade Engagement (China) World Gold CouncilMarissa Salim
Senior Research Lead, APAC World Gold CouncilSummary
2024 recap: AUD weak, equities strong, gold stronger
The past year has seen a dynamic tapestry of events, each thread shaping investor sentiment and asset performance. US and Australian elections stirred local markets, while ongoing geopolitical tensions kept global investors cautious (Chart 1). The US Federal Reserve initiated an easing cycle with three rate cuts totalling 100 basis points, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held rates steady, lagging its peers.
Chart 1: Relentless parade of geopolitical risks cast a shadow over the global landscape
Geopolitical risk index*
*As of 24 January 2025 on a five-day rolling average basis.
Source: GPR, World Gold Council
Assets put in a varied performance (Chart 2). The AUD weakened by 10% against the dollar – the widening US-Australia yield spread, particularly in Q4 amid diverging stances from the Fed and the RBA, was a key contributor.1 Local equities finished the year stronger and Australian properties also powered higher.2
Gold, denominated in AUD, held the lead in 2024 with a stunning 38% surge. Strong investment demand, rising geopolitical risks and a weaker AUD supported gold’s rally. And similar drivers are extending gold’s strength into 2025, delivering a 4.9% return so far.
Chart 2: Gold held the lead against a mixed performance from assets
Various asset performance in AUD during 2024*
*As of end December 2024 and 24 January 2025. Based on LBMA Gold Price PM, MSCI World Index, ASX REITs Index, Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index, ASX300 Index, FTSE Global Infrastructure Index, Bloomberg AusBond Composite Index, Bloomberg Global Agg Index and FTSE Nareit Developed Index. All calculations in AUD.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
2025 outlook: a case for gold in AUD to thrive?
This year is likely to be supportive for gold. As our 2025 Gold Outlook noted, while US Treasury yields and the dollar may stay elevated, upside potential for gold could come from continued central bank gold purchases and possible spikes in geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, volatility in equities and bonds, as well as potential weakness in non-US currencies, could provide additional boosts to investment demand for gold. And as uncertainty in the US bond market stay elevated, we believe the impact from yield changes may be less pronounced on gold, as our recent analysis demonstrates.
Furthermore, we believe potential weakness in the Australian dollar may provide an additional boost to gold in local currency terms. Such currency weakness may stem from two main fronts:
1. Changes in monetary policy expectations
Although the RBA left rates unchanged in its December meeting, it was noted that growth momentum had weakened and the upside risk of inflation had diminished.3 And while labour market prints may muddy the case for a cut in February, more weight in that decision may come from Q4 inflation data which shows cooling momentum. The market is currently pricing in over 80bps cuts for 2025, much higher than the previous expectation (Chart 3).4
In contrast, reflation concerns in the US and the surprising strength in both growth and labour market data have seen investors push back their expectations of further rate cuts – the market is now only pricing in around 50bps rate reduction in 2025, a pivotal change from around 100bps in December (Chart 3).
This could mean that the RBA will deliver more rate cuts than the Fed, further widening the interest rate spread between the two countries, weighing on the AUD.
Chart 3: Diverging rate expectations for 2025
Policy rate expectations reflected in OIS futures*
*Expected policy rates after each planned policy meeting in 2025 as of the end of November 2024 (purple) and end of December 2024 (blue).
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
2. Potential growth risk
Restrictive financial conditions, declining real income and cooling momentum in the housing sector all weighed on Australian growth in 2024. Even if markets are right about cuts, the absolute level of rates and their lagged impacts could continue to chip away at the economy’s resilience. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding Chinese economic development may also pose challenges – especially if the Trump trade war hits V2.0.5 As historical data shows, sluggish growth usually leads to a weakening local currency.
Other risks such as geopolitical challenges may also induce volatility in local assets, creating stress for Australian portfolios. This has been a key area of concern among APAC investors. Gold’s positive outlook and its ability to cushion geopolitical risks should, we believe, make it a key asset to local portfolios (Chart 4).
Chart 4: Gold has performed well during geopolitical risk surges
Performance of various assets during geopolitical risk spikes*
*Based on average weekly performances in AUD of the LBMA Gold Price PM, Bloomberg Commodity Index, Bloomberg Australian Bond Index, Bloomberg Global Bond Aggregate Index, ASX300 Index, and MSCI World Index. We show here the average of the top 10 geopolitical risk surges based on the Geopolitical Risk Index.
Source: matteoiacoviello.com, Bloomberg, World Gold Council
In conclusion, after an exceptionally strong year, we believe gold has the potential to continue to shine in 2025. Although the macro environment this year may bring some headwinds, the global geopolitical landscape and risks stemming from financial markets are certain to attract attention from official institutions and retail investors. Meanwhile, the potential risk of AUD weakness could make gold more attractive in local investors’ portfolios. And over the longer term, we anticipate that gold will deliver a stable return in line with global nominal GDP growth.
Footnotes
1See: Australia's central bank closer to cutting rates, Feb not ruled out | Reuters and Fed Turns Hawkish, Signals Fewer 2025 Cuts: What This Means for Banks | Nasdaq
2See: Bull and bear cases for Australian shares in 2025 and How Australia’s Property Market Changed in 2024 – in 10 charts
3For more, see: 10 December 2024 | Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Board | RBA
4Based on end-2025 rate expectation in the OIS market.
5For more, see: POTUS 47: What could Trump 2.0 mean for global trade? | UBS United States of America
Unearthed: Gold’s Next Move – ETFs, China & Investor Sentiment
Unearthed Podcast
World Gold CouncilIn this episode of Unearthed, World Gold Council’s Senior Market Strategists Joseph Cavatoni and John Reade analyse the latest trends in the global gold market, including its strong year-to-date performance, changing investor sentiment and gold ETF flows.
They look at what's happening in the key markets around the world, discussing the muted physical demand in North America and Europe, the potential impact of European deficit spending on the gold market, and China’s growing investment demand - particularly the recent policy shift allowing major insurers to allocate assets to gold. With macroeconomic forces in flux, Joe and John consider what could drive gold higher to US$3,000/oz and what investors should watch next.
This episode was recorded on Wednesday 12 March before gold hit US$3,000/oz on Friday 14 March.
Disclaimer
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All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Weekly Markets Monitor: Gold claims US$3,000/oz
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the week – QT lifeline: running out of time?
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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Weekly Markets Monitor: Liberation Day & Stagflation
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the week – Stagflation signs clearer
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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Weekly Markets Monitor: Tariffs Spare no Land
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the week – The cost of winning
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Note: Cumulative daily returns of MSCI USA Index, Bloomberg Commodity index, Bloomberg Bitcoin Index, Bloomberg US Dollar Index, LBMA Gold Price PM,
MSCI World Index, Bloomberg US Agg Index and Bloomberg Global Agg Index.
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Get updates in your inbox
Get email updates
Weekly Markets Monitor: Gold above US$3,200/oz
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the week – Selling the US
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Note: cumulative daily returns of Bloomberg US Dollar Index and Bloomberg US Agg Index.
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Get updates in your inbox
Get email updates
Weekly Markets Monitor: The Easter gold surge
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the week – dollar on the ropes
Source: Bloomberg
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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Get email updates
Weekly Markets Monitor: And breathe...
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the week - The Chinese gold rush
Source: Shanghai Futures Exchange, ETF providers, World Gold Council
Based on weekly average trading volumes of gold futures/day at the Shanghai Futures Exchange and weekly inflows of Chinese gold ETFs, as of 25 April 2025.
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Get updates in your inbox
Get email updates