Gold rally sours Indian demand in August
- The domestic gold price was 10.3% higher in August compared to July, outpacing the LBMA gold price which rose by 7%
- Indian gold imports reached just 28.2t in August 2019 – 70% lower than the same month last year and lowest level since January 2018
- With elevated domestic gold prices and a higher custom duty, the discount in the local gold market widened out as far as US$55/oz in August
- Monsoon rainfall is 5% above Long Period Average (LPA) with Kharif sowing just 0.2% lower than last year; normal monsoon and healthy sowing bodes well for rural gold demand in Q4 2019.
Takeaways from the Shenzhen Jewellery Fair 2019
I was in Shenzhen earlier this month attending various events held by major jewellers and industry bodies such as the Shenzhen Gold and Jewellery Association.
Attracting around 2,300 Chinese jewellers, the Shenzhen International Jewellery Fair 2019 is China’s leading jewellery conference and exhibition, showcasing cutting-edge innovations and exciting developments in China’s jewellery market.
Chinese gold premium hit six-year high in August
- In August, Shanghai Gold Benchmark (PM) rose 11% to 355 yuan/gram and the local gold premium peaked at a six-year high.
- While Au(T+D)’s trading volume in August surged to a new all-time high, gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) declined again last month.
- Gold imports dropped to 44t in July, the lowest since 2017.
- The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added another 6t to its gold reserves in August.
Marking the centenary of the London reference price
While the gold market is a complex place, full of interesting dynamics and uses, nothing quite gets people's attention like the gold price.
Gold and emerging markets
Gold-backed ETFs added 122t or 5% of AUM in August
Holdings in global gold-backed ETFs and similar products rose by 69 tonnes(t) to 2,440t in 2018, equivalent to US$3.4bn of inflows. Global gold-backed ETFs grew 3% in 2018, driven by strong growth in European funds and increased global inflows during December.** This is the first time since 2012 that the value of total gold-backed ETF holdings has finished the year above US$100bn.
Gold futures net longs at all-time highs
Higher prices and custom duty dampened Indian demand in July
- Indian gold imports reached just 37.7t in July 2019 – 49% lower than the same month last year
- The domestic gold price was 2.3% higher in July compared to June; 23% higher y-t-d
- The custom duty on gold was unexpectedly raised by 2.5% in the Union Budget on 5th July
- With elevated domestic gold prices and a higher custom duty, the discount in the local gold market reached a peak of US$28/oz in July
- Volatile prices and weak physical demand encouraged healthy gold futures trading on MCX: volumes touched a high of 46.8t in July
