Total gold supply in Q2 increased 3% y/y to a new second quarter record, with mine production and recycling contributing
Mine production (+1% y/y) and gold recycling volumes (+4% y/y) both increased in Q2’25
Aggregate producer hedging fell by 7t in Q2 the sixth consecutive quarter of dehedging.
Tonnes
Q2'24
Q2'25
Y/y % change
Total supply
1,210.0
1,248.8
3
Mine production
896.2
908.6
1
Net producer hedging
-20.4
-7.1
-
-
Recycled gold
334.2
347.2
4
Total gold supply increased by 3% y/y to 1,249t in the second quarter. This was driven by an all-time high Q2 mine production of 909t and 347t of recycling – the highest level seen in any second quarter since 2011. Preliminary estimates suggest that the aggregate producer hedgebook fell by 7t in Q2’25, although this number will likely change once mining companies release their quarterly reports.
H1’25 mine production of 1,742t was almost unchanged compared to the 1,744t seen in H1’24 and 1% lower than the record set in 2018.1
Mine production
Mine production of 909t in Q2 was 1% above the previous second quarter record of 900t, which was set in 2018. On a q/q basis production increased by 9%, due primarily to seasonal base effects.
Notable Q2 production increases – based on data available at the time of publication – were from the following countries:
Brazil (+13% y/y) driven by the continued ramp-up of G Mining’s Tocantinzinho project, which reached commercial production at the end of 2024 and continues to improve output
Ghana (+13% y/y) due to the ongoing ramp-up of Shandong Gold’s Namdini operation and increased supply from Asanta Gold’s Bibiani mine, together with sharply higher ASGM supply
Uzbekistan (+8% y/y) where production at Navoi Mining’s Muruntau mine continues to grow as it expands operations
Canada (+6% y/y) due to higher output from existing operations such as Detour Lake supplemented by the commissioning of new supply at Blackwater and Premier & Red Mountain and continued ramp-up of operations at Greenstone.
Chart 9: Global mine production up 1% y/y on broad-based growth across regions
H1 mine production by year, tonnes*
GDT Q2 2025: Supply Chart 1
Sources:
Metals Focus,
Refinitiv GFMS,
World Gold Council; Disclaimer
*Data to 30 June 2025.
In contrast, operations in some countries were hit by a mix of mining and geological factors, resulting in the following Q2 production declines:
Indonesia (-21% y/y) as Batu Hijau mines more waste in the early stages of phase 8 of mining operations
Mexico (-8% y/y) as production was suspended indefinitely at the Los Filos mine after expiry of a land access agreement, as well as lower output from Pan American Silver’s Dolores operation as the mine transitions to residual leaching
BurkinaFaso (-4% y/y) due to lower production from a number of operations, including Endeavour Mining’s Houndé operation, which is transitioning from a softer oxide ore to fresh ore, resulting in lower mill throughput and grade.
Full year 2025 may see a new record high in gold production, eclipsing the previous high set in 2018. But the uncertainty regarding the suspension of production at Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto mine makes predictions more difficult than usual.
In Q1’252 average all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for the gold mining industry reached a record high of US$1,536/oz (+11% y/y). This was a 6% q/q increase, partly due to normal seasonally weak first quarter mine production. Other factors driving AISC increases include higher sustaining capital expenditure, production challenges at some operations, and larger royalty payments due to the higher gold price.
Net producer hedging
The aggregate mining industry hedgebook declined by about 7t in the second quarter, matching the Q1 decline. Best estimate suggest that the outstanding aggregate hedged position for the gold mining industry stands at about 178t and the contraction seen in Q2’25 represents the sixth successive quarter of de-hedging. Although some new debt-related gold hedges were reported during Q2, the overwhelming preference for mining companies appears to be for full exposure to the spot gold price and, where hedges are in place, these are typically being delivered into and not fully replaced.
Recycled gold
Gold recycling in Q2 increased by 4% y/y but barely changed q/q. A strong price performance, which saw the quarterly average US dollar gold price up 40% y/y and 15% q/q, appears to have been behind the slightly stronger showing from this category, although we consider the recycled supply response to be slower than we would have expected considering the magnitude of the price moves.
Various trends were noted across regions and countries:
Recycling supply in India remains low considering gold’s price rise. Exchange of old gold jewellery for new remained high and increases in loans against gold jewellery limited sales, the latter trend indicating that consumers preferred to retain their holdings rather than sell. Indeed, our analysis suggests that over the first five months of the year, individuals in India pledged between 90-120t of gold as collateral against consumption loans. This would therefore potentially have withdrawn a significant volume of gold from the system that may otherwise have contributed to recycling supply.
China, the largest source of recycled supply, saw essentially flat recycled supply during Q2, a pause in the longer-term upward trend.
Elsewhere in Asia, recycled supply was down sharply in Thailand following very strong supply in the first half of 2024
Europe was the standout region in Q2 with growth in supply, particularly in Italy and Germany. European recycling volumes are running at much higher levels than were typical between 2014 and 2023 due to weakening economic prospects and high prices.
The US saw a modest increase in Q2 recycling volumes. According to reports, there is no sign of consumer distress in the country, nor any scrapping of product lines by retailers. Rather, the high gold price appears to be drawing out decent amounts of old jewellery from consumers
In contrast, Q2 recycling volumes from the MiddleEast softened. In light of the economic and political turmoil in much of the region, holding gold for its safe-haven characteristics appears to be the theme of the moment.
Despite Q2’s modest y/y gains in recycling supply, volumes remain lower than we would expect - still some way below the exceptional levels seen in 2011 and 2012, which is quite remarkable considering the gold price increase and larger retail holdings of jewellery compared to previous peaks. A number of global themes help explain this relative stability:
Price expectations among gold holders appear to be positive, encouraging them to hold onto their gold as they anticipate further gains
Many markets saw substantial selling-back last year as gold prices started to move rapidly higher, and this seems to have depleted near-market stocks
Currently, there is only limited evidence of distress selling
In countries experiencing economic and political stress, a lack of alternative safe-haven options means that gold is viewed as the last asset to sell, rather than as a ready source of cash.
We discuss our expectations for annual recycling supply in the Outlook section.
1A marginal downward revision to 2024 mine production indicates that it did not hit an annual record in 2024; 2018 remains the highest year for annual mine production.
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