31 July, 2025
| Tonnes | Q2'24 | Q2'25 | Y/y % change | |
| World total | 395.6 | 341.0 | -14 |
|
| India | 106.6 | 88.8 | -17 |
|
| China, P.R.: Mainland | 86.2 | 69.2 | -20 |
|
Gold jewellery volumes continued to decline in Q2 as record gold prices during the quarter further impinged on affordability. Quarterly demand was 30% below the five-year quarterly average of 487t.
Among the 31 markets in which we measure gold jewellery consumption, Iran was unique in witnessing a y/y increase in demand – elsewhere, there were universal declines.
The recent sharp gold price increases have prompted a more pronounced decoupling between consumption volumes and value, particularly in price sensitive markets such as India and China. In contrast with the volume series, all markets saw a y/y rise in the value of jewellery demand.
Gold jewellery demand in China fell by 20% y/y to just 69t. This was the fifth consecutive quarterly double-digit decline, taking demand close to levels last seen in Q1’20 when COVID swept the country. Despite this, demand in value terms continued to strengthen, with spending on gold jewellery 13% higher y/y at US$7bn (RMB53bn).
The weak Q2 generated H1 total gold jewellery consumption of 194t – down 28% y/y. With the exception of 2020, this is the weakest H1 demand since 2009.
The drivers behind the decline were broadly consistent with those observed in 2024. A sharp surge in local gold prices eroded consumer affordability, while persistently weak sentiment – reflected in subdued consumer confidence and near-record household savings – further dampened gold demand. Broader economic uncertainties, including concerns over future growth and US-China trade tensions, also contributed to consumer caution.
The domestic gold jewellery industry is witnessing a continued reduction in retail points of sale (POS). To some extent, this decline in outlets also constrained consumer access, exacerbating the demand slump and accelerating industry consolidation. While this trend poses short-term challenges, we believe it will ultimately benefit the market by phasing out underperforming outlets.
The gold price and consumer sentiment will likely remain the primary drivers of gold jewellery demand in H2. Chinese households continue to save at near-record levels, limiting discretionary spending on items like gold jewellery. Persistent weakness in the property market and external headwinds may continue to weigh on consumer confidence. Nonetheless, potential monetary easing and fiscal stimulus could offer some offsetting support and seasonality patterns suggest gradual q/q recovery in Chinese gold jewellery consumption from Q3 onwards.
Indian gold jewellery consumption in Q2 fell by 17% y/y to 89t, as gold prices breached the psychological Rs100,000/10g mark for the first time. Consequently, H1 demand of 160t was the second lowest in our data series from Q1 2000 – only the COVID-hit 2020 was lower (at 118t).
The value of gold jewellery consumption showed a markedly different trend: spending in US$ rose 17% y/y and 43% q/q.
In volume terms, the record gold price severely impacted affordability. This mainly impacted the mass market segment; the average weight of pieces bought by wealthier consumers remained relatively unchanged.
The shift towards lighter-weight items continued in the record price environment, with consumers increasingly favouring 18k plain gold jewellery due to affordability. Gold-plated silver jewellery is also gaining increasing acceptance. Reflecting this shift in the market, the Bureau of Indian Standards recently approved hallmarking of 9ct jewellery.
Festival demand related to Askhaya Tritiya on 30 April was apparently mixed. Large and corporate retailers, who were able to implement aggressive promotional and marketing campaigns, reported increased sales. In contrast, buying interest at smaller, independent stores was weaker.
Recycling of gold jewellery remained very subdued during the quarter as Indian consumers preferred to either exchange old jewellery for new or, increasingly, pledge it as collateral for loans.
While a seasonal recovery in demand is likely in Q3 as the festive and wedding seasons get underway, the continued high price environment looks set to put ongoing pressure on gold jewellery demand volumes in the country.
A 6% y/y fall in Turkish gold jewellery demand (to 8t) translated to a 32% increase in value to US$820mn. Q2 saw a continuation of the themes from Q1, with demand impacted by a combination of gold price strength, consumer sentiment undermined by continued domestic political unrest and stubbornly high consumer inflation.
Gold jewellery demand in the Middle East saw widespread y/y declines as the high gold price, combined with ongoing regional tensions, suppressed volumes. Iran was the outlier – consumers bought gold jewellery as a proxy investment, pushing demand up 12% y/y.
Gold jewellery consumption in the US extended the downward trend of the last three years, with a 7% y/y decline to 30t. This contrasted with a 30% jump in the value of demand to US$3bn.
The collapse in the price of lab-grown diamonds helped to offset the rise in gold prices, lending some support to demand for gem-set gold jewellery.
European gold jewellery volumes slipped 4% y/y – the ninth consecutive decline in quarterly demand – while value rose 35% y/y to US$2bn. Jewellery volumes will likely remain under pressure while gold prices hold around the €90/g price level and limit consumer affordability.
Gold jewellery demand in the ASEAN markets followed the global pattern: volumes declined while value increased y/y. Record prices curbed spending power and a shift in preference towards lower carat jewellery was noted across the region.
Demand in Indonesia was particularly weak, falling to the lowest in our 25-year data series. Economic growth has slowed and consumer sentiment has been weakened by trade concerns and falling commodity prices. The government has announced a package of measures designed to stimulate consumer spending, but fragile consumer sentiment may continue to undermine gold jewellery demand in H2.
Japanese gold jewellery consumption saw its weakest second quarter since 2020, in response to the high price. The decline in volume was less pronounced than the price rise, generating a rise in the value of demand.
The domestic jewellery industry remained relatively benign; Japanese consumers still have an appetite for gold jewellery, albeit that a shift towards platinum has been noted.
The fall in South Korean gold jewellery demand was less pronounced than in many other markets. This resilience was due to healthy wedding season sales and continued interest in gold’s wealth preservation properties. Sales were boosted by jewellers who increased their offerings of low-carat (below 14K) items, which helped meet more achievable price points.
In line with the global trend, jewellery demand volumes in Australia fell y/y (-10% to 2t) as the price inhibited affordability. In value terms, though, gold jewellery spending jumped 26% y/y.
| Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q/q % change |
Y/y % change |
|
| India | 106.6 | 171.6 | 189.8 | 71.4 | 88.8 | 24 | -17 |
| Pakistan | 4.3 | 4 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.1 | -2 | -5 |
| Sri Lanka | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.2 | 20 | -28 |
| Greater China | 92.1 | 109.5 | 114.2 | 132.5 | 73.8 | -44 | -20 |
| China, P.R.: Mainland | 86.2 | 102.4 | 106.1 | 124.9 | 69.2 | -45 | -20 |
| Hong Kong SAR | 4.9 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.7 | -42 | -23 |
| Taiwan Province of China | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | -30 | -17 |
| Japan | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 6 | -15 |
| Indonesia | 4.3 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 3.4 | -19 | -22 |
| Malaysia | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.5 | -35 | -8 |
| Singapore | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 | -14 | -8 |
| Korea, Republic of | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 2.6 | -35 | -6 |
| Thailand | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | -4 | -20 |
| Vietnam | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | -29 | -20 |
| Australia | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 78 | -10 |
| Middle East | 44.6 | 35.9 | 43.4 | 45.1 | 39.7 | -12 | -11 |
| Saudi Arabia | 13.2 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 14.6 | 11.2 | -23 | -15 |
| UAE | 9.2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 7.7 | -2 | -16 |
| Kuwait | 3.1 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 10 | -13 |
| Egypt | 6.8 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 5.7 | -12 | -17 |
| Islamic Republic of Iran | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 1 | 12 |
| Other Middle East | 5.7 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 5.1 | -22 | -10 |
| Turkey | 8.3 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 7.8 | -13 | -6 |
| Russian Federation | 8.9 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 7 | -10 |
| Americas | 43.2 | 37.1 | 61.3 | 31.8 | 40.4 | 27 | -7 |
| United States | 32.6 | 27.8 | 47.0 | 23.3 | 30.2 | 30 | -7 |
| Canada | 3.3 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 23 | -3 |
| Mexico | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 14 | -5 |
| Brazil | 4.0 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 23 | -3 |
| Europe ex CIS | 14.9 | 12.5 | 28.8 | 10.7 | 14.3 | 34 | -4 |
| France | 2.9 | 1.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 2.8 | -8 | -2 |
| Germany | 2.5 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 147 | -5 |
| Italy | 3.7 | 2.8 | 9.0 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 52 | -2 |
| Spain | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 3 | -5 |
| United Kingdom | 3.8 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 48 | -5 |
| Switzerland | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Austria | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Other Europe | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Total above | 347.2 | 414.5 | 494.8 | 336.2 | 297.4 | -12 | -14 |
| Other & stock change | 48.4 | 45.5 | 53.9 | 47.2 | 43.5 | -8 | -10 |
| World total | 395.6 | 460.0 | 548.7 | 383.4 | 341.0 | -11 | -14 |
Source: Metals Focus, World Gold Council
