31 July, 2025
| Tonnes | Q2'24 | Q2'25 | Y/y % change | |
| Investment | 268.1 | 477.2 | 78 |
|
| Bar & Coin | 275.2 | 306.8 | 11 |
|
| India | 43.1 | 46.1 | 7 |
|
| China, P.R.: Mainland | 80.0 | 115.1 | 44 |
|
| Gold-backed ETFs | -7.1 | 170.5 | - | - |
Investment demand for gold continued the upward trend that has broadly been in place for the last three years. Total investment demand was 78% higher y/y, thanks to sizable positive flows into gold-backed ETFs and robust growth in bar and coin demand.
The themes that created such fertile ground for gold investment in Q1 remained very much in play during the second quarter: fluctuating US trade policy; a weaker US dollar; heightened geopolitical tensions punctuated by regional flare-ups; close attention to the respective paths of inflation and economic growth; and fresh record highs in the gold price that attracted further investment inflows.
Gold faced some headwinds in the form of a rebound in stock markets and a resilient US labour markets. Nevertheless, jitters around the impact of US economic policy and the direction of the dollar remained sufficiently high to support demand for gold’s safe-haven, risk hedge attributes.
Anecdotal reports suggest that global institutional and high net worth investors expressed continued interest in gold, for the same reasons as noted above. These flows are captured in the OTC and stock flows figure, which added 170t to demand in Q2. This number also reflects any statistical residual from the balance of other demand and supply estimates in our model.
Gold-backed ETFs attracted significant investment in Q2 as a modest monthly decline in May was sandwiched between very strong demand in both April and June. The net result: a 170t quarterly increase in global holdings.
Combined with the 227t of demand in Q1, this set the seal on a very strong first half year for ETFs. With positive demand in all regions, global holdings increased by 397t over H1 – the strongest semi-annual performance since the record-breaking 734t in H1 2020.
Along with the surging gold price – which attracted momentum inflows into gold-backed ETFs – key drivers of Q2 demand were continued uncertainty over global trade policy, successive spikes in global geopolitical tensions and concern over rising inflationary pressure.
North American-listed funds added 73t (US$8bn) during the second quarter, taking total regional holdings to 1,857t (US$196bn in AUM).
Demand for Asian-listed funds of 70t almost matched that of North American funds – all the more impressive considering their collective holdings are less than one-fifth the size at 321t (US$35bn). The lion’s share of the Asian demand was for Chinese funds, which added 61t. Nevertheless, Indian and Japanese physically-backed funds also saw positive flows. In addition, our analysis suggests that Japanese mutual funds (ITMs) that buy shares of gold ETFs, gathered US$2bn during the quarter.1
Switzerland and the UK together accounted for over 75% of demand for European-listed funds in Q2 (+24t; US$1bn), adding 14t and 4t respectively.
Meanwhile, funds listed in other regions attracted 4t (US$334mn) in Q2. Australia and South Africa were the main contributors.
For a detailed review of regional gold-backed ETF flows, please see our ETF Flows Commentary.
Global investment in gold bars and coins remained healthy in Q2 – up 11% y/y at 307t. This was a slight slowdown from the very strong Q1 (-6% q/q), but comfortably above the 290t five-year quarterly average (+6%). And two consecutive quarters of very solid demand produced the strongest first half since 2013.
Bar and coin demand in China reached 115t in Q2. Added to the very strong Q1 figure, this pushed the H1 total to 239t – 26% higher y/y and the strongest first half since 2013. In value terms, Q2 investment reached a record high of RMB83bn (US$12bn).2
Four key factors underpinned Q2 strength in Chinese bar and coin investment:
These factors look set to remain relevant for gold investors in China for the remainder of the year, which suggests a continuation of the supportive environment for bar and coin investment. Furthermore, regulatory changes announced in H1 allowing Chinese insurers to participate in the gold market marks a structural shift, which may encourage further participation by domestic investors.3
Indian investors continued to add to their bar and coin holdings in significant volumes during Q2. Demand of 46t was 7% higher y/y – the eighth consecutive quarter of growth.
Positive price momentum encouraged continued interest in gold, with widespread investor expectations for further price gains. But the impact on affordability was reflected in growing demand for smaller denomination items, notably coins of less than 10 grams.
Fieldwork indicates that online and e-commerce platforms are increasingly popular among gold investors, suggesting a growing preference to buy from organised players in India’s gold market.
The prospects are encouraging for Indian gold investment to remain stable throughout of 2025. Economic indicators continue to paint a positive picture, with healthy rural demand, broad-based economic growth and, so far, good monsoon rainfall. Added to the potential for prolonged global trade disruption and outbreaks of heightened geopolitical tension, the supportive environment for gold investment in India is likely to persist.
Turkish investment continued to decelerate sharply from the very elevated levels of the last couple of years. Demand halved y/y to 15t, resulting in a y/y decline in value terms to US$2bn.
Demand momentum was related to the gold price, rallying during April before cooling off in late May and June as investor focus shifted back to high interest savings accounts. This pattern of demand was reflected in the local price premium, which declined in June to single digits… and even the occasional discount. Anecdotal reports suggest investors are waiting either for a decisive bullish price signal, or for another opportunity to buy during a price correction.
Investment in the Middle East was healthy at 31t. This concealed a mixed picture: double-digit growth in several markets contrasted with y/y declines in Saudi Arabia and Egypt, where profit taking emerged, particularly in the latter part of the quarter as the gold price failed to breach new record highs.
Investment in Iran jumped to more than 13t – the highest for over six years. Ongoing depreciation and high inflation – actors that had already driven safe-haven demand – were further boosted by the outbreak of military conflict with Israel. Spillover concerns from the latter also boosted investment in the UAE.
US investment demand recorded sharp double-digit declines both q/q and y/y. Bar and coin demand of just 9t was the lowest since Q4’19.
The extent of the drop was such that investment in value terms fell y/y by 35% to US$929mn – one of only two markets to witness a fall in the US$ value of investment during the quarter.
US net investor demand was again affected by a double whammy of elevated profit taking and subdued levels of new purchases. The impact of tariffs on some gold bullion products disrupted demand. Meanwhile, profit taking responded to movements in the price as the pace of liquidations in April reportedly jumped in tandem, before slowing sharply in June as the price consolidated in more of a sideways range.
The picture for European gold investment in Q2 was in sharp contrast to that of the US. Demand in the region more than doubled y/y to 28t. While this partly reflects the depths reached in Q2’24, demand has seen a continued recovery over recent quarters. Germany has been at the forefront of this trend, with investor interest fuelled by bullish price expectations and heightened macroeconomic uncertainties.
Profit taking remained very much in evidence, but was increasingly outweighed by fresh demand, particularly for lighter-weight items (e.g. 1g, 10g, 20g and 1oz), due to affordability constraints.
Feedback also suggests notable safe-haven demand from several east European countries, reflecting concerns over rising domestic political instability and potential inflationary pressure.
In most of the ASEAN region that we monitor, gold investment demand witnessed a very strong second quarter as high gold prices combined with economic and political uncertainty to fuel demand. High double-digit y/y increases were commonplace, as was a near-doubling in the value of investment.
Vietnam was the exception. Local currency depreciation, combined with the high US$ price, sent domestic gold prices rocketing to a record level. This imposed affordability constraints, which generated a 20% y/y decline in demand to 9t. Nevertheless, it remains elevated in a longer-term context and strengthened in US$ value terms by 12% y/y to US$997mn.
Profit taking on bars and coins during Q2 slightly outweighed new buying in Japan, where quarterly gold investment continues to oscillate between slight disinvestment and modest positive demand.
Buying interest remains healthy, driven by younger investors, who are more recent entrants to the market and favour purchases of smaller items. Anecdotally, this contrasts with profit-taking being predominantly among older, legacy owners of gold selling into price strength.
Bar and coin demand in South Korea subsided from the previous quarter’s very high levels, but nonetheless remained healthy at 30% higher y/y and 13% above the five-year average. Currency depreciation and ongoing political instability combined with the high gold price continued to attract investment demand.
Gold bar and coin investment in Australia jumped 18% y/y to 4t. Strong buying interest was noted as the price rallied in April and May, before settling down in June. The strong y/y comparison was largely due to a slowdown in liquidations. The strong price performance, against a backdrop of easing inflation and interest rate cuts, lifted investor sentiment towards gold.
| Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q/q % change |
Y/y % change |
|
| India | 43.1 | 76.7 | 76.0 | 46.7 | 46.1 | -1 | 7 |
| Pakistan | 4.5 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 4.8 | -5 | 5 |
| Sri Lanka | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Greater China | 82.2 | 63.9 | 86.2 | 126.7 | 118.3 | -7 | 44 |
| China, P.R.: Mainland | 80.0 | 62.1 | 83.6 | 124.2 | 115.1 | -7 | 44 |
| Hong Kong SAR | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.8 | - | 117 |
| Taiwan Province of China | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | -18 | 32 |
| Japan | 4.6 | 0.1 | -0.9 | 0.2 | -0.5 | - | - |
| Indonesia | 4.5 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | -35 | 29 |
| Malaysia | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | -19 | 25 |
| Singapore | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.2 | -12 | 37 |
| Korea, Republic of | 4.1 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 5.3 | -23 | 30 |
| Thailand | 7.2 | 12.1 | 14.6 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 35 | 38 |
| Vietnam | 11.8 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 9.5 | -21 | -20 |
| Australia | 3.1 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 16 | 18 |
| Middle East | 29.7 | 25.1 | 27.1 | 28.4 | 31.0 | 9 | 4 |
| Saudi Arabia | 4.2 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 3.4 | -23 | -19 |
| UAE | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 31 | 25 |
| Kuwait | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 36 | 20 |
| Egypt | 7.6 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 25 | -23 |
| Islamic Republic of Iran | 10.9 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 4 | 20 |
| Other Middle East | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 25 | 23 |
| Turkey | 30.8 | 12.7 | 23.5 | 20.2 | 15.3 | -24 | -50 |
| Russian Federation | 8.9 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 12 | -5 |
| Americas | 21.1 | 22.3 | 21.7 | 19.5 | 11.7 | -40 | -45 |
| United States | 18.9 | 19.9 | 18.6 | 15.9 | 8.8 | -45 | -53 |
| Canada | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | -22 | 41 |
| Mexico | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -29 | -14 |
| Brazil | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | -4 | -5 |
| Europe ex CIS | 11.1 | 18.2 | 23.2 | 26.9 | 28.4 | 6 | 156 |
| France | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -1.2 | -1.0 | - | - |
| Germany | -2.0 | 3.5 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 10.9 | 4 | - |
| Italy | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Spain | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| United Kingdom | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.1 | -19 | 17 |
| Switzerland | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 9 | 24 |
| Austria | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 65 | 97 |
| Other Europe | 5.5 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 11 | 48 |
| Total above | 269.9 | 269.2 | 313.6 | 324.3 | 301.8 | -7 | 12 |
| Other & stock change | 5.3 | 1.5 | 11.1 | 0.3 | 4.9 | 1,525 | -6 |
| World total | 275.2 | 270.6 | 324.7 | 324.6 | 306.8 | -6 | 11 |
Source: Metals Focus, World Gold Council
1While these funds buy shares of gold ETFs and not gold directly, they nonetheless feed into the gold holdings of funds (usually those listed in the US or Europe) that they hold.
2RMB value and USD value based on the quarterly average Au9999 in RMB and LBMA Gold Price in USD respectively.
3RMB value and USD value based on the quarterly average Au9999 in RMB and LBMA Gold Price in USD respectively.
