The scenarios described in Section 3 hinge on how quickly the four barriers come down, but there will not be progress without deliberate effort. Change is predicated on progress across the market, from token issuers, vaulting providers, and regulators, as well as banks and platforms that ultimately connect with retail investors.
So how will we know if it is working?
Four signals, each likely to manifest before 2031, will show whether digital gold is on track for the base case, the bull case or neither:
1 Trust taking shape through regulation and redemption.
The signal is whether consultations turn into regulation, from the UK FCA's Call for Input on tokenised gold to Hong Kong's move to bring gold-backed tokens into its tokenised investment framework, and whether redemption terms loosen, with physical gold available at more locations and lower minimums. Clarity on both fronts in leading markets is the base case, while a harmonised global framework paired with broadly available redemption would favour the bull case. With trust seen as the single biggest barrier for every group of investors, this is the one to watch first.
2 Major banks putting digital gold in their apps.
Asian markets have shown that making digital gold available through channels customers already use and trust, and especially banking apps, significantly drives uptake. Our base case is that banks in the remaining leading markets will follow suit. Banks and other scaled platforms offering access everywhere would point to the bull case.
3 New revenue models unlock competitive pricing.
Digital gold providers are finding new ways to make money beyond simply charging customers for holding gold. By offering additional products and earning a share of trading fees, providers can generate new sources of income. Enabled by new technology and digital banking platforms, these revenue streams can help cover the costs of holding gold, allowing providers to offer customers more competitive prices.
4 Utility breaking out of the crypto niche.
Yield and collateral use cases are already live but mostly on crypto-native platforms. The signal is whether regulated institutions adopt them and whether payments follow. Partial progress in the leading markets is the base case. All three uses at scale would point to the bull case.
If the signals emerge faster and more powerfully than expected, digital gold can do what every earlier innovation in gold ownership has done: lower barriers to entry and grow the market as a whole.
Capturing that opportunity will take an industry-wide effort. The World Gold Council is committed to act as a convenor, bringing together stakeholders who can make it happen. We encourage any organisation, regulator or individual who wants to shape this movement to reach out.
