Research library

Gold may face similar dynamics in 2022 than those from last year as competing forces support and curtail its performance. 

The shift to risker and less liquid assets strengthens the case for an allocation to gold, given its unique combination as a highly liquid, low-volatility asset.

With very little mining and modest levels of recycling, India is heavily reliant on bullion imports to meet its domestic demand. Indian official imports have continued to grow despite high import duty with official imports averaging 760t over the last decade.

This report provides quantitative insights into how large-scale mining (LSM), and specifically mines operated by World Gold Council (WGC) member companies, contributes to economic advancement and improves livelihoods at a global, national and local community level.

Together with our partners at OMFIF, we have written a report on the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and the implications for the gold market. 

Q3 gold demand down 7% to 831t

ETF outflows outweighed continued recovery in other sectors 

Econometric analysis shows that rising income is the most powerful driver of Indian gold demand in the long term. This bodes well for gold demand as the economy is set to benefit from a demographic dividend: the IMF forecasts per capita GDP growth of 23% between 2022 and 2026. 

We believe that mandatory hallmarking will be positive for India’s gold market, improving transparency and giving consumers more confidence in the purity of the gold they buy. 

Over the past two months, economic growth has disappointed even as inflation has exceeded expectations. A real risk of stagflationary conditions, with rising costs amid lower growth, appears to be on the cards.

Gold struggled in September amid general weakness in financial assets

Gold fell in September by 4% to around US$1,743/oz. This was the second consecutive month of declines, with gold now over 8% lower y-t-d. Gold wasn’t alone. Treasuries, Corporates, US- and non-US equities all fell in September possibly as a result of deleveraging. The Q2 level of margin debt for equities was at a record high. It would be understandable if some leverage has been removed as we head into the historically volatile month of October. And it’s quite possible that this de-leveraging has affected most assets (energy and industrial metals excepted).