Research library

Gold demand was 964.3t in Q3, just 6.2t higher y-o-y. Robust central bank buying and a 13% rise in consumer demand offset large ETF outflows. Alistair Hewitt explains the findings of our latest Gold Demand Trends report.

Gold demand stayed soft in Q2, dropping to 964.3t. The H1 total of 1,959.9t is the lowest since 2009.

Today, China’s gold industry is at a crossroads; leading stakeholders are asking where it will go next. We believe the consideration of three questions will help set the course for the industry over the next three to five years.

The 2005-2013 boom in Chinese gold jewellery demand was followed by a fallow few years, which saw demand shrink by one third. But there are green shoots of recovery emerging.

Gold demand of 973.5t was the lowest Q1 since 2008. The main cause was a fall in investment demand for gold bars and gold-backed ETFs, partly due to range-bound gold prices. 

The strong gold price performance was a positive for investors and producers, and was symptomatic of a more profound shift in sentiment: a growing recognition of gold’s role as a wealth preservation and risk mitigation tool. This goes to the heart of our strategy to make gold a mainstream asset.

Gold demand rallied in the closing months of 2017, gaining 6% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 1,095.8 tonnes (t) in Q4. But it was too little, too late: full year demand fell by 7% to 4,071.7t. 

The third quarter saw a 9% year-on-year (y-o-y) drop in gold demand to 915 tonnes (t). Year-to-date (y-t-d) demand was down by 12%.  ETFs had another quarter of positive inflows, but at 18.9t, they fell far short of the 144.3t influx in Q3 2016. 

2016 full-year gold demand gained 2% to reach a 3-year high of 4,308.7t. Annual inflows into ETFs reached 531.9t, the second highest on record. Declines in jewellery and central bank purchases offset this growth.

China has gone through remarkable change in the past 30 years. Within one generation, the shape of our economy has altered beyond all recognition: agriculture’s share of output has fallen and the service sector has become an important driver of growth.