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The past two decades have seen a radical shift in the world’s axis, as China has become a dominant global force economically, commercially and, increasingly, politically. In this edition of Gold Investor, we assess the outlook for China across a range of perspectives. 

The IMF Global Financial Stability report, released on 10 October, highlighted an increase in the level of risk among multiple global metrics. Following its publication, stocks in the US, Europe and Asia lost 4%, 3% and 4% respectively over three days. 

Gold is an important part of central banks’ foreign exchange (FX) reserves. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), at the end of H1 2018 central banks collectively owned US$1.36tn of gold, around 10% of global FX reserves.

Gold has fallen to a 20-month low amid sharp EM currency depreciation. At these levels, we believe the gold price may bounce back. Consumer demand is likely to be supportive in H2. And short positioning may quickly reverse should one of the many current macroeconomic risks materialise, increasing investment demand.

Gold demand stayed soft in Q2, dropping to 964.3t. The H1 total of 1,959.9t is the lowest since 2009.

Gold 2048 brings together industry-leading experts from across the globe to analyse how the gold market is set to evolve in the next 30 years with key insights from authors such as George Magnus, senior economist; Rick Lacaille, Global Chief Investment Officer of State Street Global Advisors; and Michelle Ash, Chief Innovation Officer at Barrick Gold.