Gold ETF inflows catch up to gold price strength

Global gold ETFs added 61.3t tonnes (t) (US$3.4bn, 1.7% AUM) in May, reversing three straight months of net outflows. We believe this to be largely a function of investment demand increasing with the price strength of gold, along with renewed inflation concerns in the market, a weaker dollar and lower real yields. Global assets under management (AUM) stand at 3,628t (US$222bn). AUM is now only 9% shy of the August 2020 high of US$240bn and 7% shy of the October 2020 tonnage high of 3,908t.

Gold ETF outflows continue, but slow with gold price strength

Global gold ETFs lost 18.3t tonnes (t) (-US$1.1bn, -0.5% AUM) in April, marking outflows for five of the past six months. However, global outflows slowed significantly, as European funds added assets for the first time since January. Global assets under management (AUM) stand at 3,567t (US$203.0bn), after slipping below $200bn for the first time in over a year during March. Since the peak asset levels in November 2020, gold ETF AUM has fallen nearly 14%, with 8% coming from outflows and 6% coming from the gold price selloff in US dollar terms.

Gold Market Commentary

Inflation, falling yields and the US dollar pushed gold higher

Marking a turnaround from the first three months of the year, gold rebounded 4.5% in April to finish the month at US$1,768/oz - its highest monthly closing level since January and its first positive monthly return since December 2020.

Central Bank Domestic ASGM Purchase Programmes

Gold has been at the heart of central banking for centuries. Once an official currency, it has become a cornerstone of modern reserve management. Emerging market central banks have been particularly active purchasers in recent years,  and have occasionally acquired gold from local artisanal and small-scale producers. 

North American gold ETF funds drove 86% of Q1 net outflows

Global gold ETFs lost 107.5t tonnes (t) (-US$5.9bn, -2.9% AUM) in March, marking outflows for the fourth month out of five and the second month in a row with net outflows cracking the top 10 worst historically. Global assets under management (AUM) stand at 3,574t (US$194.5bn), back to levels last seen in mid to late Q2 2020. Since the peak asset levels in November 2020, gold ETF holdings have fallen nearly 10% in tonnage terms, on par with the approximate loss in the price of gold over the same period.

Gold Market Commentary

A sharp rise in US interest rates and a stronger dollar have weighed on gold recently. But a rebound in economic activity and a lower gold price have provided opportunities for consumers and strategic investors alike.