Why India Needs a Gold Policy

India has an ambivalent relationship with gold. For consumers, gold is a prized asset, cherished as both an adornment and an investment. For the government, gold is a major contributor to the current account deficit, a challenge that needs to be addressed.

Investment Commentary: First half 2014

Gold is up by 9.2% so far this year. This surprised many market participants as most analysts predicted lower prices. Some investors took advantage of last year’s price correction to buy gold but investment demand has remained tepid. We consider that the current environment of high bond issuance, tight credit spreads and record low volatility continues to offer a prime opportunity for investors to add gold. In our view, gold can reduce overall portfolio risk and it is cheaper to implement than many volatility-based strategies.

Investment Commentary: 2013 review and 2014 outlook

We view the direction of the US dollar as well as the strength of Asian demand as key indicators of gold sentiment. Further, potentially reduced mine production at lower prices should, in our view, limit the downside. Finally, our research shows that gold should not be looked at in isolation but as part of portfolio and that a small strategic allocation can reduce the long-term level of risk.

Investment commentary: first quarter 2013

We discuss the limitations of the most common arguments and contextualise gold’s price pullbacks. We examine structural shifts that gold market has experienced over the last decade resulting in a robust set of demand factors, very different from that seen during the 1970s.

India: heart of gold - Strategic outlook

This report looks at the future of the gold market in India. It puts in context the market for gold, and examines the strategic outlook for the Indian economy and gold demand over the next decade. There is short discourse on the mythological and cultural significance of gold in India as well as detailed econometric analysis of Indian gold demand from 1980 to 2009.