Gold mid-year outlook 2018

Gold rose by more than 4% in the first few months of 2018, only to finish June down by the same amount. Gold’s price momentum and investor positioning in derivatives markets accelerated this descent, but we believe that there may be reasons to be optimistic. Key macroeconomic trends developing in the second half of 2018 may spur investor demand and opportunistic buying.

Market Update: India's Budget - policy and progress

India, a nation that accounts for around a fifth of annual global gold demand, has a long history of gold-focused policies. These, however, have often distorted the market rather than achieving policymakers’ aims. Announcements in the Union Budget on 1 February 2018, however, suggest this might change.

The gold market in 2018

In 2017, investors added gold to their portfolios as incomes increased, uncertainty loomed, and gold’s positive price momentum continued. As 2018 begins we explore four key market trends and their implications for gold.

GST's impact on India's gold market

On 1st July, India’s labyrinth of taxes will be replaced with a simple, nationwide Goods & Services Tax (GST). This is the biggest fiscal reform since India’s liberalisation in the early 1990s. While gold consumers will face a slightly higher tax rate, and the industry will go through a period of adjustment, we see the net impact on the gold industry as being positive. The gold supply chain should become more transparent and efficient, and the tax reform can boost economic growth, which we see as supporting gold demand.

India’s gold market: evolution and innovation

In 2015 India was the world’s fast growing economy; in recent years millions have been lifted out of poverty and India’s middle class has swelled. This is important because our econometric analysis indicates income growth drives gold demand. 

The gold market in 2017

In 2016, investors around the world returned in large numbers to the gold market, as a combination of macroeconomic drivers and pent up demand kept interest in gold high. As we start the new year, there are some concerns that US dollar strength may limit gold’s appeal.