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Physically-backed gold ETFs saw another monthly outflow, losing US$3bn, equivalent to a 59t reduction in holdings by the end of September. Total AUM settled at US$198bn, further impacted by a nearly 4% reduction in the gold price, while collective holdings dropped 2% to 3,282t.
Gold lost 3.7% in September, with the bulk of the move occurring during the last three days of the month. We attribute gold’s challenging month to an extensive run up in bond yields alongside a stronger dollar. The sell off at the end of the month was also likely the result of a strong adverse reaction to US economic data, a fall in the Chinese local premium and a negative technical breach.
The traditional Defined Contribution (DC) investment portfolio made up of equities and bonds has come under increasing pressure in the last 18 months. Faced with rising inflation volatility risks and a highly uncertain economic backdrop, could now be the time to reconsider traditional thinking? We believe investors would benefit from expanding their “safe havens” options by considering gold.
Physically-backed gold ETFs saw net outflows of US$2.3bn in July, equivalent to a 34t reduction in holdings. Despite this, total assets under management (AUM) increased by 2% m/m to US$215bn as a rebound in gold price more than offset negative flows.
Gold declined marginally by 1% in August, in the face of higher yields and a stronger dollar. Sentiment remained weak for most of the month as ETFs continued to lose AUM while COMEX managed money net long futures positions fell to a five month low.
Physically-backed gold ETFs saw net outflows of US$2.3bn in July, equivalent to a 34t reduction in holdings. Despite this, total assets under management (AUM) increased by 2% m/m to US$215bn as a rebound in gold price more than offset negative flows.
August has been a good month for gold returns over the past two decades, likely driven by seasonally weak bond yields and consumer sentiment, anticipation of seasonal equity volatility in September, and some gold restocking in India and China.
India is one of the world’s largest gold bar and coin markets. Investment demand for gold is driven by its safe-haven appeal and the ability to convert these products into jewellery at a later stage.
Gold, in Australian dollars (AUD), delivered positive returns in 2022 and this has continued so far in 2023. It has attracted attention: not only have global central banks continued to buy gold, but Australia’s sovereign wealth fund has also added gold to its portfolio.
Global gold ETFs experienced net outflows of US$3.7bn (56t) in June, calling a halt to their three-month inflow streak. June’s outflow caused global gold ETF demand during H1 2023 to turn negative, leaving collective holdings of global gold ETFs at US$211bn (3,422t).