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    Investment Commentary


    Gold Demand Trends: India Focus Q1 2026

    India’s gold demand rose 10% y/y to 151t in Q1, while nearly doubling in value to a record INR 2,275bn (US$25bn). Growth was led by investment demand, up 54% y/y to 82t, with bar and coin demand nearly matching jewellery consumption and ETFs hitting record highs. Jewellery volumes fell 19% y/y, but spending rose 47%. Investment demand is set to remain supportive, while jewellery demand may stay under pressure from inflation and economic headwinds.

    Gold Demand Trends: US Focus Q1 2026

    US gold demand softened in Q1 2026 as a sharp reversal in ETF flows outweighed resilience across other segments. Physically backed US gold ETFs recorded sizeable monthly outflows in March, erasing inflows accumulated earlier in the quarter amid risk‑off conditions, elevated positioning and higher opportunity costs. Bar and coin investment provided a partial offset as retail interest remained resilient, while jewellery demand fell to a record quarterly low on affordability pressures. Despite near‑term volatility, ongoing geopolitical tensions, policy‑rate uncertainty and broader macroeconomic risks continue to support the longer‑term investment case for gold in the US.

    You asked, we answered: Has gold's performance structurally changed?

    Gold’s volatility has markedly increased in 2026; however, similar episodes have occurred in periods of risk with volatility usually normalising within a few months. Bid-ask spreads have also notably risen since 2024; however, barring unusually high spikes in off market hours, the gold market still offers sizable liquidity through record trading volumes and two-way market activity. Amid a visible increase in the bond-equity correlation, gold remains a valuable strategic asset and portfolio diversifier even when accounting for its higher volatility environment.

    Why gold in 2026? Is gold still a strategic asset for Japanese investors?

    Following an epic 2025, gold’s volatility has risen notably in 2026. This has prompted a key concern among investors: is gold still a strategic asset for Japanese portfolios? Our analysis shows that with various challenges facing Japanese investors in 2026, such as sticky inflationary pressure, rising bond-equity correlation and geopolitical uncertainties, gold remains a strategic asset and improves local portfolio performance.

    Why gold in 2026? Australia's macro shifts and the case for gold

    Australia’s economy continues to grow but resurgent inflation and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s decision to resume tightening in February 2026 – diverging from some of its peers – raises questions around portfolio allocations. Australia's unique geopolitical positioning, with its fortunes tied to increasingly affluent trade partners within the Indo-Pacific while being strategically aligned with the US, has created an asymmetry that makes portfolio diversification crucial. Against this backdrop, gold’s role in Australian portfolios warrants renewed attention. For Australian investors, a strategic allocation to gold offers both a macro hedge and a portfolio diversifier at a time when uncertainty takes centre stage.

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