Gold Outlook

In one of the most dramatic starts to any year, gold soared to record highs in January, crossing above US$5,500/oz intraday before pulling back to US $4,000/oz in late June. Down roughly 7% year-to-date, gold nonetheless ranks among the top performers over the past year, as other assets play catch-up.

Gold has experienced a remarkable 2025, achieving over 50 all-time highs and returning more than 60% as of the end of November, driven by heightened risk, dollar weakness and price momentum.

Gold rose 26% in H1 2025, outpacing major asset classes. As we look forward, consensus expectations macroeconomic drivers suggest that gold main remain rangebound in H2 with the possibility of some upside. Gold may move significantly higher if geoeconomic conditions deteriorate. Conversely, a widespread resolution of geopolitical risk, while unlikely, may measurably undercut gold’s y-t-d gains.

Gold is poised for its best annual performance in more than a decade – up 28% through November. Behind this, central bank and investor buying have more than offset a notable deceleration in consumer demand.

So far in 2024, China's gold jewellery consumption weakened notably while investment demand for gold saw sizeable increases. Looking ahead, potential stability in the economy and possible further stimuli should help trim gold jewellery demand weakness, expected declines in yields and a likely weaker local currency may support gold investment demand.

Gold has performed remarkably well in 2024, rising by 12% y-t-d and outperforming other major asset classes. As we look ahead, the key question remains: will gold’s momentum continue or is it running out of steam?

As we look forward to 2024, we explore three economic scenarios and their likely impact on gold. Historically, gold has had a flat performance during consensus-favoured ‘soft landings’; however, geopolitical risks, central bank buying and the spectre of a recession may provide additional support for gold.

As Chinese jewellery retailers shook off the pandemic, many strode into 2023 with strong expectations. But the recovery has been bumpy. In the face of economic uncertainties and the record-level renminbi (RMB) gold price, understanding current trends and future possibilities is fundamental to jewellers’ businesses.