April review
Gold ended April flat, weighed down by a return of risk appetite. But a weaker US dollar and ETF inflows led by Europe provided support.
Looking forward
Short-term headwinds could sustain some gold weakness as it searches for a catalyst to regain the structural uptrend.
Gold closed at US$4,611/oz, flat for the month of April. Across most major currencies, gold lost a little ground on a weaker US dollar (Table 1).
Our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) suggests that a sizeable drop in market volatility – as risk appetite returned – was a major negative contributor. But this was countered by strong ETF inflows, a moderately weaker US dollar and other dip buying as a result of the sharp March sell-off (Chart 1).
April saw strong inflows into global gold ETFs. Surprisingly, these were led by Europe, likely due to concerns from European investors that the region would be harder hit by the Strait of Hormuz closure. Asia and the US contributed about a third as much as Europe during the month.
COMEX managed money net long positions saw a very modest increase in April to US$1bn (5t), but remain firmly in neutral territory.
| USD (oz) |
EUR (oz) |
JPY (g) |
GBP (oz) |
CAD (oz) |
CHF (oz) |
INR (10g) |
RMB (g) |
TRY (oz) |
AUD (oz) |
|
| April price* | 4,611 | 3,933 | 23,214 | 3,396 | 6,277 | 3,608 | 149,777 | 1,013 | 208,363 | 6,421 |
| April return* | 0.1% | -1.5% | -1.4% | -2.6% | -2.3% | -2.3% | 2.5% | -0.4% | 1.7% | -4.1% |
| Y-t-d return* | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 12.9% | 4.1% | 11.1% | -1.5% |
| Record high price* | 5,405 | 4,539 | 26,884 | 3,961 | 7,305 | 4,143 | 175,231 | 1,248 | 234,639 | 7,701 |
| Record high date* | 29 Jan 2026 | 02 Mar 2026 | 02 Mar 2026 | 02 Mar 2026 | 29 Jan 2026 | 29 Jan 2026 | 29 Jan 2026 | 29 Jan 2026 | 29 Jan 2026 | 29 Jan 2026 |
*Data to 30 April 2026.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council.
Markets appear to be treating the Middle East crisis and Hormuz shutdown as transitory, a word that carries baggage after 2021-22.
The shock has been large, but markets are not extrapolating it into a meaningful shift in inflation or growth…yet.
US near-term inflation breakeven rates (two-year) spiked as the crisis intensified, but have since retraced much of that rise. US equities have rallied strongly on a return of risk appetite; options markets appear relaxed too.
Last month, we highlighted several reasons why gold struggled as the crisis unfolded: prior strong performance, broad deleveraging, a rate shock and liquidity needs.
The crisis remains unresolved, but markets – led by the US - have become sanguine. The US remains relatively sheltered from the energy shock and its consumers appear resilient enough for now.
This presents a quandary for investors: a major geopolitical crisis is unfolding, but the triggers to tactically shift into gold seem absent. There is a tug-of-war between short-term pressure and longer-term structural support.
Gold spot price (XAU) in US$/oz*
*Data to 30 April 2026.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Our take on the negative factors:
Taken together, the near-term setup is not especially friendly. Gold is technically softer, rate-cut expectations have moved out, and markets are treating the shock as temporary. Absent a fresh catalyst, this could remain a weak period for gold.
But the calm could prove fragile. If the shock is less temporary than markets assume, gold could regain support quickly, given that:
And the more structural support factors should come back into play:
Markets appear to be treating the Middle East crisis as transitory, which is weighing on gold. Technical momentum looks more vulnerable, rate-cut expectations have moved out the curve and US-led risk appetite has recovered. But the crisis has also reinforced many of the structural reasons investors own gold in the first place: inflation uncertainty, geopolitical risk, unreliable bond diversification, fiscal pressure and gradual reserve diversification. A catalyst - exogenous or perhaps via a weaker price – will be needed to re-establish the structurally supported uptrend.
1S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: April 24, 2026
2Research - Oil Flash Note - J.P. Morgan Markets, 30 April 2026.
3Hedge Fund Bond Market Bets Risk Yield Spikes, BIS Chief Warns - Bloomberg, 27 November 2025
4Beyond bonds: How to protect against inflation-led shocks | J.P. Morgan Private Bank U.S, 22 August 2025
5However, the demise of the US dollar is premature. Dollar invoicing remains dominant, the Eurodollar market is deep, and there is no full-scale alternative to US financial markets. But diversification does not need to be dramatic to matter. Even marginal shifts in reserve preferences can have a meaningful impact on gold.
