Jewellery
30 April, 2025
- Record gold prices dictated global trends in gold jewellery demand in the first quarter
- Demand volumes declined across virtually all markets, while values were almost universally higher
- China was the sole market to see a fall in the value measure of demand as domestic consumers had to contend with a challenging economic environment.
| Tonnes | Q1'24 | Q1'25 | Year-on-year % change | |
| World total | 480.1 | 380.3 | -21 |  |
| India | 95.5 | 71.4 | -25 | |
| China, P.R.: Mainland | 184.4 | 125.3 | -32 | |
The headline-grabbing gold price rise dominated the jewellery sector in Q1 causing a notable decline in global volumes to 380t (-21% y/y) through its impact on consumer affordability. But the value of Q1 gold jewellery consumption increased 9% y/y to US$35bn. Value growth was seen in every market except China, suggesting that consumers were prepared to stretch their budgets.
China
Record gold prices at a time of sluggish income growth and a shift towards pure gold investment products drove a sharp decline in China. Demand of 125t marked a five-year low for a first quarter – traditionally the seasonal high point for China’s gold jewellery market – at 19% below the ten-year quarterly average. Demand in value terms was more resilient, down just 6% y/y at US$12bn (RMB84bn).
As the price continued to set new record highs, consumers preferred to sit on the sidelines and/or to shift to lighter-weight, more affordable items. The tentative environment was reflected at the trade level, as retailers adopted a cautious approach to stock levels ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday.
In coming quarters, we expect affordability to remain a key influence on gold jewellery consumption. Should the gold price remain elevated and economic growth slow in Q2 – also a traditional off season for jewellery sales – tonnage demand for gold jewellery is likely to drop further.
Although pure gold investment items (bars, coins, GAP, etc.) were increasingly a focus in Q1, investment motives in China remain an important driver for buying gold jewellery – particularly as other local assets have underperformed. This is likely to provide support to gold jewellery demand going forward, especially if expected rate cuts are implemented, which may boost disposable income.
Table 2: Jewellery demand in selected countries, tonnes
| Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Quarter-on-quarter % change |
Year-on-year % change |
|
| India | 95.5 | 106.5 | 171.6 | 189.8 | 71.4 | -62 | -25 |
| Pakistan | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.2 | -10 | -10 |
| Sri Lanka | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | -18 | -41 |
| Greater China | 195.5 | 92.1 | 109.5 | 114.2 | 133.0 | 16 | -32 |
| China, P.R.: Mainland | 184.4 | 86.2 | 102.4 | 106.1 | 125.3 | 18 | -32 |
| Hong Kong SAR | 9.8 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 6.4 | -9 | -34 |
| Taiwan Province of China | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 22 | -6 |
| Japan | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | -30 | -8 |
| Indonesia | 5.5 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 4.1 | -47 | -25 |
| Malaysia | 3.9 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 45 | -4 |
| Singapore | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 9 | -20 |
| Korea, Republic of | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 47 | 16 |
| Thailand | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | -41 | -8 |
| Vietnam | 4.1 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 5 | -15 |
| Australia | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | -56 | -10 |
| Middle East | 42.8 | 39.7 | 33.7 | 40.9 | 40.8 | -0 | -5 |
| Saudi Arabia | 8.5 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 17 | 35 |
| UAE | 9.6 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 7.9 | -11 | -18 |
| Kuwait | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | -30 | -20 |
| Egypt | 8.0 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 2 | -20 |
| Islamic Republic of Iran | 7.2 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 6 | 0 |
| Other Middle East | 6.5 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 5.4 | -5 | -17 |
| Turkey | 11.3 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 9.0 | -24 | -20 |
| Russian Federation | 8.3 | 8.9 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 7.5 | -35 | -10 |
| Americas | 33.1 | 43.2 | 37.2 | 61.4 | 31.8 | -48 | -4 |
| United States | 24.5 | 32.6 | 27.9 | 47.1 | 23.3 | -50 | -5 |
| Canada | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 2.6 | -53 | -3 |
| Mexico | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | -24 | -5 |
| Brazil | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.1 | -39 | 3 |
| Europe ex CIS | 11.0 | 14.9 | 12.5 | 28.8 | 10.7 | -63 | -3 |
| France | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | -49 | -4 |
| Germany | 1.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 0.9 | -77 | -6 |
| Italy | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 9.0 | 2.3 | -74 | -3 |
| Spain | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.9 | -27 | 3 |
| United Kingdom | 2.6 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 2.5 | -66 | -4 |
| Switzerland | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Austria | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Other Europe | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Total above | 429.5 | 342.3 | 412.4 | 492.3 | 332.5 | -32 | -23 |
| Other & stock change | 50.5 | 49.6 | 46.6 | 55.1 | 47.9 | -13 | -5 |
| World total | 480.1 | 391.8 | 459.0 | 574.5 | 380.3 | -31 | -21 |
Source: Metals Focus, World Gold Council
India
Price was the key factor driving a 25% y/y fall in gold jewellery demand in India to 71t. While this was the lowest quarterly volume since Q3 2020, the value of demand was 3% higher y/y.
The record gold price, which broke through the key Rs90,000/10g threshold for the first time, impacted affordability. Consumers to buy smaller or more lightweight pieces, or hold back on purchases altogether in the hope that prices may dip and offer a more affordable buying opportunity. Wedding-related demand was relatively resilient, given the essential nature of such purchases.
Interestingly, the record price level did not encourage a rise in recycling. This in part reflects the relative strength of the Indian economy, with little need for distress selling. Instead, more buyers opted to trade in old jewellery for new; by the end of the quarter around 40-45% of purchases were reportedly involving some form of exchange.
Similarly, Q1 saw a continuation of the recent growing trend in gold loans – whereby gold jewellery is pledged as collateral – as consumers sought to leverage the high gold price. The outstanding credit of scheduled commercial banks against gold jewellery rose 87% y/y as of end Feb.
While gold jewellery demand saw a notable decline in the quarter, arguably it held up relatively well in the face of prices approaching Rs100,000/10g. Such price levels will continue to restrict jewellery volumes, albeit that sentiment remains very positive and Indian buyers are likely to use any price dips as opportunities to buy. Needs-based purchases – such as those for festivals and weddings – will likely hold up, but may not offset the drop in discretionary buying. Amid broader financial market turmoil and uncertainty, gold's role as a store of value is becoming more pronounced, and this is reflected in consumer behaviour as buyers shift from consumption-driven purchases to wealth preservation.
Middle East and Turkey
As well as the jump in the gold price, political unrest disrupted gold jewellery demand in Turkey during Q1. Demand fell by 20% y/y but was in line with the quarterly average of the last five years at 9t. Uncertainty generated by US tariff turmoil reportedly contributed to a pause in fabrication at a domestic manufacturing hub in the face of weak local demand.
Demand in the Middle East eased by 5% y/y, with strong growth in Saudi Arabia offsetting sharp declines across much of the region. The gold price was responsible for the bulk of the regional drop in jewellery volumes, with continued added pressure in the UAE from the cut in Indian import duty, which has hit Indian tourist demand. Saudi bucked the trend; consumer sentiment during the Eid festival was buoyed by the rising price and festive demand was strong.
US and Europe
Jewellery demand in the US was down 5% y/y in volume terms, while the rising price drove a 32% increase in the value of demand to US$2bn. The decline in volume was purely down to the price rise, particularly against the background of continued cost-of-living pressures. Still-low unemployment and continued enthusiasm for ‘bold gold’ pieces suggests that demand is not currently at risk of a slump.
The pace of decline in European jewellery demand slowed in the first quarter, with a 3% y/y drop. In contrast, the value measure of demand was 34% higher y/y. Record high gold prices, which breached the €90/g threshold in February, added to pressure from the weak economic backdrop. At the margin, some markets seemed to witness migration from gold to platinum.
ASEAN markets
The ASEAN markets covered in our data aligned with the global trend: demand was down in response to record gold prices. In some markets the trade responded with attempts to meet the changing needs of consumers. In Indonesia, for example, manufacturers have catered to a growing preference for more affordable items by shifting production capacity towards lower-carat jewellery. In Malaysia, jewellers introduced incentives for consumers to exchange old jewellery for new; exchanged gold jewellery does not have a net impact on jewellery consumption, but the promotions were designed to support sales revenues and maintain interest in gold jewellery.
Rest of Asia
Japan posted a modest y/y decline in Q1 jewellery demand. High prices kept volumes under pressure, although demand for kihei chains (plain, quasi-investment product) was firm.
South Korea was one of only a very small number of countries where jewellery demand increased during the quarter. Investment motives underpinned the upturn as turbulent domestic economic and political conditions drove safe-haven demand for gold. Tight domestic supply conditions for gold bars prompted investors to buy plain 24k jewellery as an alternative.
Australia
Demand in Australia responded to the record gold price with a 10% decline. While the price environment will remain the key driver of demand, easing domestic inflationary pressures and the impact of the February RBA rate cut may support consumer sentiment going forward.
