Gold Demand Trends Q3 2016

Supply

Published 08th November 2016

Categories: Supply and demand

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Outlook for mine production is rock steady

Mine production in the third quarter was virtually unchanged (-0.5%) year-on-year, as miners brought 846.8t onto the market. Year-to-date, gold production totalled 2,393.1t, versus 2,373.3t for the same period in 2015 (+1%). Despite an expectation that 2016 will see a marginal increase in production, the overall trend of plateauing output remains in place. The operational changes – cost reduction and focus on core assets – enacted by gold producers over the last few years will define the industry for years to come.

While the production figures are still provisional – owing to the varied timings that producers release their quarterly results – Q3 appears to be a carbon copy of Q2: both increases and declines were seen across projects globally. Higher production at established projects helped lift year-on-year output from Canada (+1t) and Indonesia (+6t), with the latter likely to see a significant pick-up in production in Q4 owing to higher output at Grasberg. The ramping up of projects in Guyana, as well as commercial production being reached at the Merian project in Suriname (one of only a few new mines being brought on-stream by major producers), also helped the industry maintain a steady supply of gold. Offsetting these gains were lower output at some larger projects: Q3 production in the United States likely fell around 6t year-on-year, while lower-grade mining at Oyu Tolgoi dented Mongolian production (-3t).

Cost management continues to significantly influence the industry. Although all-in sustaining costs (AISC) crept up in Q2 due to currency movements, costs are still significantly lower than they were in 2013. One example of this frugality is project expenditure – which captures the cost of developing projects – which peaked in 2012, and currently remains at multi-year lows as producers remain hesitant to loosen the purse strings (Chart 11). Not only are existing mines impacted by this parsimony, but the project pipeline is too, as new projects are contributing less to the amount of gold that is being mined annually.

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Chart 11: Annual mine production is plateauing as cost-cutting bites

  • Year-to-date, mine production is only marginally ahead of 2015 at 2,393.1t.
  • While full-year mine production is forecast to grow slightly in 2016, we maintain our overall view that supply from this source will plateau over the coming years.

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Producers’ third quarter hedging hiatus

Net hedging has been a feature of the gold market since the second half of 2015. Gold producers have eyed the dramatic price increase in 2016 as a further – more favourable – opportunity to lock-in higher, in some cases record, gold prices. This led some to question whether this heralded a return to heightened levels of hedging.

Yet, in a break from the last four consecutive quarters, Q3 2016 brought with it a more muted tone from producers. Net hedging of 79.8t in H1 has been followed by a return to net de-hedging of 15t in Q3, lowering the global hedgebook to 282t. This shift away from fresh hedging positions (on a net basis) was partially driven by the behaviour of the gold price. Compared to the first six months, the gold price was confined in the US$1,300– 1,350/oz range, and volatility fell. Combined with fewer new projects coming on stream – which often require hedging to secure financing – this reduced the appetite for hedging.

The most notable fresh hedge position occurred at the start of the quarter, with Harmony Gold hedging 20% (432,000oz) of its production over the next two years. The company made clear that: “The limited size and duration of the hedge means shareholders retain full upside exposure on 80% of Harmony’s future gold production for the next two years, after which shareholders will have 100% exposure to the gold price.” 1

Further upward momentum in the price may elicit additional small-scale hedging – on a sporadic basis – as producers continue to secure cash-flow, but it is unlikely that the industry will return to large scale hedging.

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Chart 12: Cost-cutting has curtailed spending on project development

  • Cost management remains a key priority for the industry – costs are well below the peak levels from 2013.
  • In particular, continued cuts to project spending imply a constricted pipeline.

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