Gold ETFs inflows continue in February amid high inflation and geopolitical risk

Global gold ETFs drew net inflows of 35.3t (US$2.1bn, 1.0% of AUM) in February. Positive flows were almost evenly split between North American and European funds, continuing the year-to-date growth in Western markets and considerably outweighing outflows from Asia. Global net inflows were driven by stubbornly high inflation and a surge in geopolitical risk on the back of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which pushed the gold price to an intra-month high of US$1,936/oz.

Gold ETFs bounce back to begin 2022 led by North American funds

Global gold ETFs drew net inflows of 46.3t (US$2.7bn, 1.3% of AUM) in January, led by North American funds – partially offsetting the region’s 2021 outflows. These combined with positive flows from Europe significantly outweighed Asian outflows. Overall, net inflows were driven largely by gold price strength and a sharp selloff in equity markets, despite a reversal in the gold price on the back of a hawkish US Fed statement towards the end of the month.

Gold Outlook 2022

Gold may face similar dynamics in 2022 than those from last year as competing forces support and curtail its performance. 

Gold ETFs had net outflows of US$9bn in 2021 led by North American funds

Physically backed gold ETFs saw global outflows of 173 tonnes (t) (-US$9.1bn, -4.0% AUM) in 2021. Collective gold holdings were down 5% to 3,570t for the year, while assets under management (AUM) in value terms dropped 9% to US$209bn as net outflows were compounded by a 4% contraction in the gold price.  Despite considerable outflows for the year, gold ETF holdings remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels, as they posted record inflows of approximately 875t (US$48bn) during 2020.

Bullion trade: India gold market series

With very little mining and modest levels of recycling, India is heavily reliant on bullion imports to meet its domestic demand. Indian official imports have continued to grow despite high import duty with official imports averaging 760t over the last decade.

Gold Market Commentary

Gold rose 2% in November based on the LBMA reference price, rallying early in the month before giving up most of those gains in the following weeks.

Advancing Islamic Finance Through Gold

Gold has long been valued for its distinctive investment benefits. Although gold is no longer the basis of the international monetary system, its status as a bastion of stability has endured, a role which has become ever more important in today’s uncertain environment.

Gold Market Commentary

Gold fell in September by 4% to around US$1,743/oz. This was the second consecutive month of declines, with gold now over 8% lower y-t-d. Gold wasn’t alone. Treasuries, Corporates, US- and non-US equities all fell in September possibly as a result of deleveraging. The Q2 level of margin debt for equities was at a record high. It would be understandable if some leverage has been removed as we head into the historically volatile month of October. And it’s quite possible that this de-leveraging has affected most assets (energy and industrial metals excepted).