Our Gold Market Commentary series offers monthly analysis of what has been driving the gold price, current trends in gold performance, and topics that might influence gold going forward. Each report blends quantitative insights – spot price movements, ETF flows, futures positioning – with qualitative commentary on macroeconomic and geopolitical shifts.
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Gold Market Commentary: Bonds a no go
A staggering 14% rally in January took gold above the US$5,000 mark, cementing the 5k number as a headline to match the first recorded annual 5,000 tonnes of total demand.
Gold Market Commentary: Precious Metal Thunder
Gold tagged its 53rd all-time PM price high for the year of US$4,449/oz on 23 December, before closing the year at US$4,368/oz. It was a stellar finish to a stellar year – posting a December return of 4.2% to take the full year return to 67%. Relatively stable FX led to similar returns across major currencies.
Gold Market Commentary: Technical difficulties
A momentum flush out and stronger dollar contributed to a see-saw for gold from its 50th all-time high. But gold still managed good gains in October.
Gold Market Commentary: Stick, twist or double down?
Record monthly ETF inflows took gold to its 39th new high for the year, finishing the month at US$3,825/oz (+12%). Y-t-d gold is up 47%, marking the highest return in a calendar year since 1979. Political tension, strong options market activity, and currency weakness played a key role in gold’s performance last month. Looking forward, there are plenty of reasons for investors to look at gold and the price could see further uplift should equities experience a correction. Perhaps only a major liquidity squeeze could upend both gold and equities, but there are no clear signs of fractures in credit or banking sectors…yet.
Gold Market Commentary: Stubborn stagflation
A strong rally into month-end saw gold reach US$3,429/oz (+4%), and as of the end of August, gold was up 31% for the year. The move was supported by a weaker dollar, heightened geopolitical tensions, robust gold ETF inflows, and rising expectations for a September rate cut. Looking ahead, stagflationary pressures in the U.S., the prospect of lower rates, and ongoing policy risks could dominate price dynamics, even as emerging market demand takes a breather.
Gold Market Commentary: Positioning revisited
Gold edged up 1.7% m/m in July and remains up 28% y-t-d. The move higher was supported by rising inflation expectations linked to tariffs, though gains were partially offset by a stronger US dollar. Strong underlying fundamentals suggest that the gap between prices and COMEX positioning is more likely to narrow through increased net longs positions rather than falling prices.
Gold Market Commentary: Let them eat tariffs
In May, tariff news and inflation helped but momentum effects including ETF outflows, countered, to leave gold flat for the month. Looking forward: Tariffs are starting to bite, but not where intended, pushing stagflation risks higher and hamstringing central banks.
Gold Market Commentary: A risk-induced premium that may linger
Gold rose 6% m/m in April and is up by nearly 27% y-t-d. A significantly weaker US dollar and overall heightened risk pushed gold higher during the month. We expect US policy and structural risks to continue driving gold investment. Profit taking could bring pause but may also encourage consumers.