Gold Demand Trends: US Focus Q1 2026

A challenging start for US gold demand 

ETF outflows offset strength in bar and coin investment

Total US gold demand softened in Q1, falling to 33t, around one‑third of its 10‑year quarterly average. The decline was driven primarily by a sharp reversal in physically backed gold ETF demand during March.

US-listed physically backed gold ETFs recorded record monthly outflows of 85t in March, more than offsetting the 69t of inflows accumulated earlier in the quarter. Risk‑off conditions, elevated positioning, higher opportunity costs and investors’ need to raise liquidity weighed on ETF demand, with gold among the likely assets sold following its strong price performance earlier in the year.

Bar and coin investment partially offset ETF weakness, posting y/y gains in both volume and value terms. Market commentary points to healthy two‑way activity, with continued retail interest and a shift in preference toward smaller bar-sized products.

Jewellery demand is seasonal and typically weakens in Q1, but volumes fell to a record low this quarter. Unlike most other regions, where higher prices drove record first‑quarter jewellery spending, the value of US jewellery demand recorded a mild y/y decline, reflecting affordability pressures.

In technology, steady growth in electronics demand supported US gold fabrication as rising prices continued to weigh on dentistry and other industrial uses.

Overall, Q1 reflected a mixed picture for US gold demand, with ETF outflows and jewellery outweighing strength in other segments. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions, uncertainty surrounding the next Federal Reserve chair, and broader macroeconomic risks leave the core drivers outlined in our 2026 Outlook firmly in place. 

ETF demand reverses course in March

Investment via ETFs over the past ten years has, on average, represented around 38% of quarterly net US gold demand, but strong gold price performance resulted in six consecutive quarters of inflows. 

As a result, last year was the strongest year of US$ inflows on record and the second highest in tonnage terms, with ETFs averaging 73% of total net demand. This trend temporarily reversed in Q1 (Chart 2). 

Several drivers that had previously supported ETF demand were put on hold late in the quarter and became key contributors to the weakness:

• Risk-off selling: Operation Epic Fury¹ triggered broad de-risking, likely prompting US investors to raise liquidity by selling winners such as gold
• Elevated CTA pressure: Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) entered mid‑March with elevated long positioning and appear to have amplified downside price momentum, forcing weaker hands to capitulate
• Higher opportunity costs: a stronger dollar, higher rates, and delayed rate cut expectations weighed on gold demand.

However, a single-month reduction in demand does not suggest that the gold ETF bull market has come to an end.

It is important to put recent developments into perspective and recognise that US ETFs had reported positive demand for six consecutive quarters (and nine consecutive months). Absent the perfect storm of events that unfolded in March, flows were on pace to record a seventh consecutive quarterly inflow.

Furthermore, the only other instance of at least six consecutive quarters of positive demand, outside of the initial conditions phase², occurred during the seven quarters leading up to and including the Global Financial Crisis (Q3’07–Q1’09), when cumulative US gold ETF demand reached 685t.

The key significance here is not only gold’s performance or ETF demand in a single month, quarter, or even year, but also the length and underlying drivers of a bull run (Chart 3).

As a reminder, there have been two prolonged global gold ETF bull runs since their appearance in 2003, lasting 221 and 253 weeks and adding 1,823t and 2,341t, respectively. The most recent run for gold ETFs began in May 2024; 99 weeks in, holdings are up 1,035t. Compared with prior cycles, this represents only around 40%–50% of typical cumulative accumulation (Chart 4).

North American retail investment 

Below are key takeaways from recent conversations with North American dealers on current market trends:

• Retail demand integrity remains intact, though two‑way flows and operational stress continue to shape availability, delivery times, and pricing
• Bar-size polarisation is emerging in US retail demand. There has been strong demand for small-format bars (1g, 5g, 10g), despite elevated premiums compared to larger formats. Some retailers attribute this to retail clients adjusting to higher gold prices.
• Retailer marketing and sales conversations are increasingly framed around the longer-term narratives of currency debasement and portfolio hedging, and less about short-term price performance
• Large, recurring orders from mass retailers (e.g. Costco) represent a structural expansion of US retail demand, not a one‑off phenomenon.