Central Banks and other institutions

Gold Demand Trends Full year and Q4 2019

30 January, 2020

Central Banks and other institutions

Central bank demand totalled 650t in 2019 – the 10th consecutive year of annual net purchases

  • Central banks added 650.3t to global official gold reserves in 2019, 1% lower y-o-y
  • 15 central banks made net purchases of a tonne or more, highlighting continued breadth of demand
  • This marks ten consecutive years of net purchases, with global official reserves now 5,000t higher than end-2009 at ~33,920t.
Tonnes 2018 2019 YoY
Central banks & others 656.2 650.3 -1%

In the fourth quarter of 2019 central banks added a net 109.6t to global official gold reserves, 34% lower y-o-y. Added to net purchases in the first three quarters, this brought full-year net purchases to 650.3t, just 1% shy of the 2018 total (656.2t). 

Central bank net purchases in 2019 were remarkable. The annual total of 650.3t is the second highest level of annual purchases for 50 years, highlighting the importance central banks place on having an allocation to gold in their reserve portfolio. The highest level was recorded in 2018 and buying in 2019 was not widely expected to repeat these levels for a second consecutive year.

 

Emerging markets continue to dominate central bank gold buying

Emerging markets continue to dominate central bank gold buying

Sources: International Monetary Fund, Respective central banks, World Gold Council; Disclaimer

 

Buyers in force. In total, 15 central banks increased their gold reserves by at least one tonne in 2019, highlighting the breadth of buying. Demand was exclusive to emerging market central banks looking to bolster and/or diversify their overall reserves.

The largest purchasers during the year were mostly familiar faces. Turkey, which began buying gold in 2017, emerged as the largest buyer in 2019, growing gold reserves by 159t.1 This brought total holdings to 413t, 63% higher y-o-y and equal to 20% of total reserves. Poland, which purchased 25.7t in 2018, made the biggest single purchase in 2019, buying 94.9t in June. In total, annual Polish net purchases amounted to 100t, taking reserves to 228.6t. Russian gold reserves rose by a healthy 158.1t, albeit 42% lower than a year earlier, partly because in May the central bank began offering a discounted purchase price aimed at encouraging domestic producers to export more gold.  Chinese gold reserves grew by 95.8t over the first nine months, taking total gold reserves to 1,948t (3% of total reserves). No further purchases were reported after September. Central banks in Kazakhstan (35t), India (32.7t), UAE (13.5t) Qatar (11t), Ecuador (10.6t) and Serbia (10t) also increased official gold reserves by at least 10 tonnes.

Dazzling decade of demand. 2019 marked one decade since central banks became annual net purchasers, following the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. The fundamental change in mindset towards gold has resulted in significant and, importantly, sustained levels of demand. During this time, central banks have added 5,019t back to global official gold reserves, with an annual average of around 500t, compared with average annual net sales of 443t in the preceding decade. And any sales in the last 10 years have been dwarfed by the scale of buying.

 

Central banks net purchasers for tenth consecutive year

Central banks net purchasers for tenth consecutive year

Sources: Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, World Gold Council; Disclaimer

 

Over this time, heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty have been the twin driving forces that have propelled central bank buying, particularly from emerging markets. The decade was beset by unconventional monetary policies (such as consistent low or negative interest rates) in order to restore economic stability and growth, as well as a rise in nationalism/populism, trade wars, and risks of armed conflicts. In response, central banks increased their allocation to gold.

The 5,019t surge in demand over the last decade, more than offsetting the 4,426t of net sales between 2000-2009, means that reported global official gold reserves are now only 12% below the all-time high of 38,491t seen in 1966.

Footnotes

  1. Data points used are the latest IFS statistics available at the time of publication and may not incorporate all purchases/sales to end-Dec 2019

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