Weekly Markets Monitor - Surprise, surprise
9 November, 2026
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Highlights
- Last week saw a shift in the US political landscape, weakness in technology stocks, a sharp drop in oil, and broadly resilient macro data. The Democratic midterms victory tempered expectations of further fiscal expansion while raising the prospect of tighter AI regulation. Meanwhile, US data remained strong, supported by strength in labour markets and business activity. In Europe, inflation edged higher and activity softened, while the BoE raised rates. Across Asia, activity moderated in China, wage growth strengthened in Japan and activity in India remained solid.
- Global equity markets ended the week mixed, bond yields declined, crude oil prices fell sharply, while the US dollar strengthened.
- The Fed might regret its inaction, and markets their downgrading of further hikes. Since the October meeting, inflation data have largely met expectations, yet PCE (the one that matters) continues to run well above the 2% target. Growth surprises have strengthened sharply, supported by stronger-than-expected payrolls (165k vs expected 70k), lower claims, stronger hourly earnings and consumer spending (C.O.T.W). Weaker equities may weigh on sentiment, but the data since that meeting should give the ‘pause’ crowd…some pause. With the policy outcome of the midterm elections still unclear, these developments could provide some near-term macro headwinds for gold. Softer expected US CPI tomorrow might allow for a breather.
Chart of the week: Surprise, surprise
*Data as of 6 November 2026. Surprises courtesy of CITI surprise indices. Fed funds futures expectations from Bloomberg’s WIRP function.
Sources: Bloomberg, World Gold Council.
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