Week ending 1 March 2019
- Broad Markets - Globally stock markets were slightly higher last week, the standout was China +7% with positive US/China trade-related talks. Stocks are climbing to start the week on trade optimism. The 2/10 curve in the US steepened to its highest levels of the year at 20bps. Commodities as a whole fell with the GSCI down 2%, led by oil down 2.5%. The US dollar was flat. President Trump lashed out at Powell and his ‘tightening policies’ over the weekend. Probability of a hike this year is at 8% and a cut at 2%, slightly more hawkish than the previous two weeks. The ECB meeting is this week and probability of a hike on the year is close to 50%.
- Gold – Gold was sharply lower last week (LBMA -1.3%, XAU -2.7%) closing strongly to the downside on Friday as the US dollar strengthened and stock markets moved higher