Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2015

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Categories: Gold mining and sustainable development, Supply and demand, Jewellery, Investment, Technology, Reserve asset management

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Report sections SummaryCharts
Key themes
Jewellery
Investment
Central banks and other institutions
Technology
Supply
Demand

Gold demand in the fourth quarter increased 4% year-on-year to a 10-quarter high of 1,117.7t. Full year demand was virtually unchanged, down just a fraction (-14t) to 4,212t. Weakness in the first half of the year was cancelled out by strength in the second half. Fourth quarter growth was driven by central banks (+33t) and investment (+25t), offset by a marginal contraction in jewellery (-6t) and continued declines in technology (-6t). Supply remained constrained: annual mine production increased by the slowest rate since 2008 (+1%) and recycling dropped to multi-year lows. Total supply declined 4% to 4,258t – the lowest since 2009.

Central bank purchases up 33 tonnes

4 percent growth in gold demand

47 tonne increase in demand

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Despite challenges throughout 2015, year-on-year consumer demand remained resilient

Consumer resilience in the fourth quarter was somewhat surprising, given turbulent economic, climatic and socio-political conditions in many of the markets. India and China were the mainstays of the global market – despite facing a number of challenges – while growth also came from some unexpected quarters.

Reported central bank net purchases accelerated in the second half of 2015

Central banks bolstered their gold reserves significantly in the second half of 2015, accelerating their purchasing programmes for reserve asset diversification purposes. Central banks bought 336.2t of gold in H2 2015, versus 252.1t inH1 and 308.8t in H2 2014.

Challenging first half for gold demand made way for stronger second half in 2015

The gold market faced a number of challenges in the first half of the year; demand in H1 declined by 6% year-on-year, due to a sluggish Q1 followed by a very weak Q2. But the second half of 2015 was a different story. At 2,226.6t, gold demand in H2 2015 was 6% above 2014 and 7% up on 2013.

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Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2015 - video

Alistair Hewitt, Head of Market Intelligence and Krishan Gopaul discuss the findings of the World Gold Council’s FY 2015 Gold Demand Trends report. 

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Demand statistics (in tonnes and value)

      2014 2015 Q4'15 vs Q4'14
Tonnes 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q4 % chg
Jewellery 2,480.8 2,414.9 617.2 592.0 594.1 677.4 602.7 512.3 628.5 671.4 -1
Technology 346.4 330.7 82.2 86.3 87.6 90.3 81.2 83.1 81.9 84.5 -7
Electronics 277.5 263.3 65.3 68.8 70.4 72.9 64.8 65.9 65.1 67.5 -7
Other Industrial 49.0 48.6 11.5 12.6 12.3 12.6 11.7 12.4 12.1 12.3 -2
Dentistry 19.9 18.9 5.3 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.6 -4
Investment 815.4 878.3 266.2 198.4 181.5 169.3 276.7 177.6 229.4 194.6 15
Total bar and coin demand 1,000.5 1,011.7 281.2 236.6 221.8 260.9 251.4 201.4 295.3 263.5 1
Physical Bar demand 725.2 731.6 201.7 170.3 166.2 187.0 186.6 148.5 200.4 196.1 5
Official Coin 203.0 212.6 64.0 48.8 35.7 54.5 50.5 40.6 74.4 47.1 -14
Medals/Imitation Coin 72.2 67.4 15.5 17.5 19.9 19.3 14.3 12.4 20.5 20.3 5
ETFs & similar products1 -185.1 -133.4 -15.0 -38.3 -40.3 -91.5 25.2 -23.9 -65.9 -68.9 -
Central bank net purchases 583.9 588.4 117.9 157.2 174.9 133.9 122.9 129.2 169.0 167.2 25
Gold demand 4,226.4 4,212.2 1,083.5 1,033.9 1,038.0 1,071.0 1,083.5 902.2 1,108.8 1,117.7 4
London PM fix, US$/oz 1,266.4 1,160.1 1,293.1 1,288.4 1,281.9 1,201.4 1,218.5 1,192.4 1,124.3 1,106.5 -8
      2014 2015 Q4'15 vs Q4'14
US$mn 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 % chg
Jewellery 101,006.5 90,067.2 25,659.1 24,523.9 24,485.8 26,166.5 23,611.0 19,637.1 22,717.3 23,885.4 -9
Technology 14,104.5 12,335.5 3,415.7 3,575.4 3,610.0 3,489.8 3,181.3 3,186.1 2,962.2 3,004.8 -14
Electronics 11,299.2 9,820.7 2,716.1 2,851.9 2,902.3 2,816.4 2,538.0 2,526.7 2,354.0 2,400.9 -15
Other Industrial 1,994.3 1,811.3 478.1 520.9 506.5 487.4 458.1 476.8 437.3 438.8 -10
Dentistry 1,646 1,391 469 430 382 366 357 367 348 321 -12
Investment 33,197.5 32,756.5 11,066.6 8,216.7 7,479.1 6,540.4 10,838.3 6,807.9 8,292.4 6,922.6 6
Total bar and coin demand 40,735.7 37,731.7 11,690.6 9,801.5 9,141.7 10,075.9 9,849.8 7,722.2 10,674.6 9,372.7 -7
Physical Bar demand 29,528.7 27,286.9 8,386.1 7,055.0 6,849.3 7,223.7 7,309.6 5,693.5 7,245.6 6,974.3 -3
Official Coin 8,267.0 7,929.8 2,660.7 2,022.0 1,470.5 2,106.9 1,979.6 1,555.1 2,688.7 1,676.6 -20
Medals/Imitation Coin 2,940.0 2,515.0 643.8 724.4 821.8 745.2 560.6 473.6 740.3 721.8 -3
ETFs & similar products1 -7,538.1 -4,975.2 -624.1 -1,584.8 -1,662.6 -3,535.5 988.4 -914.3 -2,382.2 -2,450.0 -
Central bank net purchases 23,774.0 21,943.8 4,901.9 6,511.7 7,206.5 5,173.5 4,813.1 4,954.6 6,109.8 5,948.7 15
Gold demand 172,082.6 157,103.0 45,043.2 42,827.8 42,781.4 41,370.2 42,443.7 34,585.7 40,081.7 39,761.5 -4

 

 

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Source: Metals Focus, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council

 

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