Research library

Today, China’s gold industry is at a crossroads; leading stakeholders are asking where it will go next. We believe the consideration of three questions will help set the course for the industry over the next three to five years.

Gold rose by more than 4% in the first few months of 2018, only to finish June down by the same amount. Gold’s price momentum and investor positioning in derivatives markets accelerated this descent, but we believe that there may be reasons to be optimistic. Key macroeconomic trends developing in the second half of 2018 may spur investor demand and opportunistic buying.

Gold 2048 brings together industry-leading experts from across the globe to analyse how the gold market is set to evolve in the next 30 years with key insights from authors such as George Magnus, senior economist; Rick Lacaille, Global Chief Investment Officer of State Street Global Advisors; and Michelle Ash, Chief Innovation Officer at Barrick Gold.

Over the long run, economic growth is a key driver of gold demand, especially in emerging market countries where there is high affinity for gold as jewellery and investment. At the same time, gold tends to perform well in period of crisis.

Price discovery is crucial for any market, and the gold market is no exception. Our gold prices primer gives a comprehensive overview of the LBMA Gold price – an important global benchmark – and looks at the mechanisms determining the local gold price in China and India, the two largest consumer gold markets.

Since their introduction in 2003, gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have transformed the gold investment market. Read our Gold-backed ETF primer for an overview of the history, features and benefits of gold-backed ETFs.

Gold demand of 973.5t was the lowest Q1 since 2008. The main cause was a fall in investment demand for gold bars and gold-backed ETFs, partly due to range-bound gold prices. 

Investors often use the direction of the US dollar as a bellwether for gold’s performance. However, over recent years, short-term movements in gold have been more heavily influenced by US interest rates and expectations of policy normalisation.

The strong gold price performance was a positive for investors and producers, and was symptomatic of a more profound shift in sentiment: a growing recognition of gold’s role as a wealth preservation and risk mitigation tool. This goes to the heart of our strategy to make gold a mainstream asset.

On February 5th, stock markets suffered one of their more precipitous falls in recent years. The gold price rose but, as stocks partly retraced their losses, gold trended lower.