Investment Commentary

Marking a turnaround from the first three months of the year, gold rebounded 4.5% in April to finish the month at US$1,768/oz - its highest monthly closing level since January and its first positive monthly return since December 2020.

Global gold ETFs lost 18.3t tonnes (t) (-US$1.1bn, -0.5% AUM) in April, marking outflows for five of the past six months. However, global outflows slowed significantly, as European funds added assets for the first time since January. Global assets under management (AUM) stand at 3,567t (US$203.0bn), after slipping below $200bn for the first time in over a year during March. Since the peak asset levels in November 2020, gold ETF AUM has fallen nearly 14%, with 8% coming from outflows and 6% coming from the gold price selloff in US dollar terms.

Inflation has emerged as a primary concern for investors. On balance, arguments for ‘uncomfortably high’ US inflation seem to outnumber those against, at least in the near term.

After a strong 2020 performance where the price rallied 25% in US dollar terms in an environment where rates fell, gold has been much weaker during 2021, down 5% year-to-date with rising rates.

A sharp rise in US interest rates and a stronger dollar have weighed on gold recently. But a rebound in economic activity and a lower gold price have provided opportunities for consumers and strategic investors alike.

The COVID-19 pandemic raised uncertainty by both compounding existing risks while creating new ones. But by the end of last year, investors were optimistic that the worst was over. 

RWC Partners is an investment management firm that specialises in helping clients to meet long-term financial needs. The group’s Diversified Return Fund aims to diversify investors’ holdings by providing defensive, uncorrelated returns. Here portfolio manager Charles Crowson and fund manager Clark Fenton explain the role of gold within this Fund.