The gold price fell in 2013 as investors reacted to Fed tapering expectations, and money flowed into equities. We believe prices now reflect a consensus view to monetary policy normalisation and should be less sensitive to it. We view the direction of the US dollar as well as the strength of Asian demand as key indicators of gold sentiment. Further, potentially reduced mine production at lower prices should, in our view, limit the downside. Finally, our research shows that gold should not be looked at in isolation but as part of portfolio and that a small strategic allocation can reduce the long-term level of risk.
