Our Gold Market Commentary series offers monthly analysis of what has been driving the gold price, current trends in gold performance, and topics that might influence gold going forward. Each report blends quantitative insights – spot price movements, ETF flows, futures positioning – with qualitative commentary on macroeconomic and geopolitical shifts.
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Gold Market Commentary: All aboard the rate cut train
August has typically been kind to gold, but seasonal winds are up against strong cross currents, that on balance look much more supportive than not.
Gold Market Commentary: As the buck stops, more bite for gold
Gold posted a third consecutive monthly gain in May, rising by 2% m/m to US$2,348/oz. Despite the more moderate gain compared to March and April, gold hit a new all-time high of US$2,427/oz mid-month before pulling back – likely reflecting some profit taking.
Gold Market Commentary: Higher-for-longer, Inflation not growth
In April, we saw strong buying from China and central banks, which resulted in gold reaching intra-month highs before pulling back by month-end. Looking forward, stagflation risks are on the rise as growth looks fragile and inflation remains problematic.
Gold Market Commentary: What’s the bull case at an ATH?
Gold had a strong March, as futures investors and green shoots from US gold ETFs help drive prices to new all-time highs.
Gold Market Commentary: Select elections and Fed on a dime
Gold continued its slow start, giving back 0.3% in February on a rise in risk appetite and Treasury yields. But a bounce in early March has seen gold hit a new ATH. A Fed meeting with new dot plots and Iranian parliamentary elections are events to watch in March, with monetary and geopolitical uncertainty high.
Gold Market Commentary: Inflation risks seep back in
In January, gold gave back gains after hitting an all-time high at the close of 2023. Looking forward, hot US growth data may delay lower rates, but politics and geopolitics will likely maintain interest in gold.
Gold Market Commentary: Gold hit new highs in 2023
Central bank buying and elevated geopolitical risk helped gold prices rise 15% to reach new all-time highs in 2023. Looking forward, the lacklustre consensus outlook for gold in 2024 may be challenged by new geopolitical tensions and overexuberance regarding monetary policy.
Gold Market Commentary: Gold finishes October on a high
Gold prices started the month on the backfoot, having fallen below US$1,850/oz at the end of September. The events in Israel on 7 October set a rally in motion that took the US dollar price back up above US$2,000/oz by 27 October. The record-high monthly finish was mirrored in almost all other major currencies