Featured Report
The World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends report reveals that annual gold demand (excluding OTC) fell to 4,448t in 2023, down just 5% from a notably strong 2022. When factoring in demand from the OTC markets and other sources, total demand climbed to a new annual record at 4,899t.
Global physically backed gold ETFs continued to see outflows (-US$1bn, -10t) in December as European losses overshadowed inflows elsewhere. At the end of 2023, their collective holdings stood at 3,225t, a 244t decline during the year. But total assets under management of global gold ETFs rose 6% to US$214bn thanks to a 15% gold price increase in 2023.
This compendium brings together a series of reports published over the last three years, giving unparalleled insight into the key factors that underpin India’s gold market, including the drivers of gold demand, the changing structure of the jewellery market, the new investment landscape, and the dynamics of gold supply.
As we look forward to 2024, we explore three economic scenarios and their likely impact on gold. Historically, gold has had a flat performance during consensus-favoured ‘soft landings’; however, geopolitical risks, central bank buying and the spectre of a recession may provide additional support for gold.
Global gold ETFs saw a net outflow of US$920mn in November, significantly narrower than October (-US$2bn). North America led global inflows while Europe continued to witness sizable outflows in the month.
Outflows from physically-backed gold ETFs totalled US$2bn in October, the fifth consecutive monthly loss. Collective holdings reduced by 37t to 3,245t.
Gold prices started the month on the backfoot, having fallen below US$1,850/oz at the end of September. The events in Israel on 7 October set a rally in motion that took the US dollar price back up above US$2,000/oz by 27 October. The record-high monthly finish was mirrored in almost all other major currencies
Central banks gold buying maintained a historic pace but fell short of the Q3’22 record. Jewellery demand softened slightly in the face of high gold prices, while the investment picture was mixed.
Gold lost 3.7% in September, with the bulk of the move occurring during the last three days of the month. We attribute gold’s challenging month to an extensive run up in bond yields alongside a stronger dollar. The sell off at the end of the month was also likely the result of a strong adverse reaction to US economic data, a fall in the Chinese local premium and a negative technical breach.
As Chinese jewellery retailers shook off the pandemic, many strode into 2023 with strong expectations. But the recovery has been bumpy. In the face of economic uncertainties and the record-level renminbi (RMB) gold price, understanding current trends and future possibilities is fundamental to jewellers’ businesses.