Gold Market Commentary

Gold fell 3.5% in July, leaving it down 2.9% on the year at US$1,753/oz. A strong US dollar and sticky real yields weighed on gold in the first half of July.

Gold Demand Trends Q2 2022

Gold demand softened in Q2. Despite Q2 weakness, strong first quarter ETF inflows fuelled a notable H1 recovery Gold demand (excluding OTC) was 8% lower y-o-y at 948t. Combined with Q1 this took H1 demand to 2,189t, up 12% y-o-y.

Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2022

Investors face a challenging environment during the second half of 2022, needing to navigate rising interest rates, high inflation and resurfacing geopolitical risks. In the near term, gold will likely remain reactive to real rates, which in turn will respond to the speed at which global central banks tighten monetary policy and their effectiveness in controlling inflation.

The Case for Gold in DC Asset Allocations

The traditional Defined Contribution (DC) investment portfolio made up of equities and bonds has worked well for investors for a long time. For much of the last 15 years, the environment that has afforded this success has been driven by central bank actions such as ultra-low interest rates and quantitative easing.

Gold ETFs bounce back to begin 2022 led by North American funds

Global gold ETFs drew net inflows of 46.3t (US$2.7bn, 1.3% of AUM) in January, led by North American funds – partially offsetting the region’s 2021 outflows. These combined with positive flows from Europe significantly outweighed Asian outflows. Overall, net inflows were driven largely by gold price strength and a sharp selloff in equity markets, despite a reversal in the gold price on the back of a hawkish US Fed statement towards the end of the month.

Central Bank Digital Currencies and Gold

Together with our partners at OMFIF, we have written a report on the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and the implications for the gold market. CBDCs can potentially enable a wide range of new features. Money can become programmable, allowing policymakers to incentivise certain spending behaviours that can optimise economic impact or address social concerns. The trackable nature of CBDCs can also help to deter financial crimes. The ability to easily deploy “helicopter money” may also spark concerns about inflation. 

A Central Banker’s Guide to Gold as a Reserve Asset - Second edition

This year marks 50 years since the end of gold’s formal link to currency. In the half-century that has passed since this milestone, the world has evolved in ways that were probably unimaginable to the political and economic leaders of that time. As the world has changed, so too has the role of gold. Whereas central banks steadily sold down their gold reserves for several decades after the end of the Bretton Woods system, they have since re-emerged as net buyers of gold for the past eleven years, with emerging market countries leading the way.