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Global physically backed gold ETFs kicked off 2023 with net outflows of US$1.6bn in January and a 26t (-0.8%) decline in total holdings to 3,446t. While the gold price witnessed its strongest January in a decade, registering a gain of 6.1%, gold ETF outflows in Europe and Asia dwarfed positive demand in North America and the Other region.
Colossal central bank purchases, aided by vigorous retail investor buying and slower ETF outflows, lifted annual demand to an 11-year high. Annual gold demand (excluding OTC) jumped 18% to 4,741t, almost on a par with 2011 – a time of exceptional investment demand. The strong full-year total was aided by record Q4 demand of 1,337t.
Physically-backed gold ETFs saw their holdings fall by 110t in 2022, down 3% y-o-y and equivalent to outflows of US$3bn.
The global economy is at an inflection point after being hit by various shocks over the past year. The biggest was induced by central banks as they stepped up their aggressive fight against inflation.
Gold fell 2% in October on rising bond yields and dollar strength, but it was positively impacted by higher breakeven inflation. But a weaker US dollar vs. euro and lower ETF outflows provided some support
Gold demand (excluding OTC) in Q3 was 28% higher y-o-y at 1,181t. Year-to-date (y-t-d) demand increased 18% vs the same period in 2021, returning to pre-pandemic levels.
The diversity of monetary gold accounting practices prompted the World Gold Council to undertake a study of central bank monetary gold accounting practices, first published in 2016 and updated in 2022 as Central bank accounting practices for monetary gold – 2022 update. The update adds central banks covered, better aligns practices with accounting frameworks, and expands the number of gold accounting issues covered.
Gold demand softened in Q2. Despite Q2 weakness, strong first quarter ETF inflows fuelled a notable H1 recovery Gold demand (excluding OTC) was 8% lower y-o-y at 948t. Combined with Q1 this took H1 demand to 2,189t, up 12% y-o-y.
Investors face a challenging environment during the second half of 2022, needing to navigate rising interest rates, high inflation and resurfacing geopolitical risks. In the near term, gold will likely remain reactive to real rates, which in turn will respond to the speed at which global central banks tighten monetary policy and their effectiveness in controlling inflation.
Annual demand recovered across virtually all sectors – the notable exception being ETFs, which saw net annual outflows