2024 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey

An increasingly complex geopolitical and financial environment is making gold reserves management more relevant than ever. In 2023, central banks added 1,037 tonnes of gold – the second highest annual purchase in history – following a record high of 1,082 tonnes in 2022.

Flows turned positive in May

Physically backed gold ETFs saw their first monthly inflow since last May, amounting to US$529mn.  A stronger gold price (+2%) and inflows pushed gold ETFs’ total assets under management (AUM) 2% higher to US$234bn, the highest since April 2022.

Europe drove outflows in April

Global gold ETFs saw outflows of US$2.2bn in April, further extending aggregate losses to eleven consecutive months. Ultimately, North America (+US$124mn) and Asia (+US$1.5bn) were unable to offset sizable European outflows (-US$3.7bn) 

Gold Demand Trends Q1 2024

Central banks continued to buy gold at pace in a quarter that saw the gold price reach a series of record highs. Bar and coin investment was firmer, offsetting continued outflows from ETFs. Inclusive of sizable OTC buying by investors, total gold demand increased 3% y/y to 1,238t – the strongest first quarter since 2016.

Outflows narrowed in March

Global gold ETFs lost US$823mn in March, extending their losing streak to ten months. But outflows narrowed significantly compared to previous months as inflows into North America (+US$360mn) and Asia (+US$217mn) cushioned European losses (-US$1.4bn).

Outflows sustained into February

Global gold ETFs saw their ninth consecutive outflow in February, losing US$2.9bn. North America (-US$2.4bn) bored the brunt of loss, while outflows from European funds (-US$719mn) narrowed. Funds listed in Asia extended their inflow streak to 12 months, adding US$200mn and the Other region experienced limited flow changes. 

2024 began with continued outflows

Global gold ETFs began 2024 with outflows of US$2.8bn in January, extending their losing streak to eight months. North American (-US$2.3bn) led global outflows and Europe (-US$730mn) also experienced heavy losses. A bright spot in the data came via positive inflows from Asia (+US$214mn).

December outflow compounds 2023 losses

Global physically backed gold ETFs continued to see outflows (-US$1bn, -10t) in December as European losses overshadowed inflows elsewhere. At the end of 2023, their collective holdings stood at 3,225t, a 244t decline during the year. But total assets under management of global gold ETFs rose 6% to US$214bn thanks to a 15% gold price increase in 2023.   

Gold Outlook 2024

As we look forward to 2024, we explore three economic scenarios and their likely impact on gold. Historically, gold has had a flat performance during consensus-favoured ‘soft landings’; however, geopolitical risks, central bank buying and the spectre of a recession may provide additional support for gold.