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Featured Report
An increasingly complex geopolitical and financial environment is making gold reserves management more relevant than ever. In 2023, central banks added 1,037 tonnes of gold – the second highest annual purchase in history – following a record high of 1,082 tonnes in 2022.
Physically backed gold ETFs saw their first monthly inflow since last May, amounting to US$529mn. A stronger gold price (+2%) and inflows pushed gold ETFs’ total assets under management (AUM) 2% higher to US$234bn, the highest since April 2022.
Global gold ETFs saw outflows of US$2.2bn in April, further extending aggregate losses to eleven consecutive months. Ultimately, North America (+US$124mn) and Asia (+US$1.5bn) were unable to offset sizable European outflows (-US$3.7bn)
Central banks continued to buy gold at pace in a quarter that saw the gold price reach a series of record highs. Bar and coin investment was firmer, offsetting continued outflows from ETFs. Inclusive of sizable OTC buying by investors, total gold demand increased 3% y/y to 1,238t – the strongest first quarter since 2016.
Global gold ETFs lost US$823mn in March, extending their losing streak to ten months. But outflows narrowed significantly compared to previous months as inflows into North America (+US$360mn) and Asia (+US$217mn) cushioned European losses (-US$1.4bn).
Global gold ETFs saw their ninth consecutive outflow in February, losing US$2.9bn. North America (-US$2.4bn) bored the brunt of loss, while outflows from European funds (-US$719mn) narrowed. Funds listed in Asia extended their inflow streak to 12 months, adding US$200mn and the Other region experienced limited flow changes.
Global gold ETFs began 2024 with outflows of US$2.8bn in January, extending their losing streak to eight months. North American (-US$2.3bn) led global outflows and Europe (-US$730mn) also experienced heavy losses. A bright spot in the data came via positive inflows from Asia (+US$214mn).
Global physically backed gold ETFs continued to see outflows (-US$1bn, -10t) in December as European losses overshadowed inflows elsewhere. At the end of 2023, their collective holdings stood at 3,225t, a 244t decline during the year. But total assets under management of global gold ETFs rose 6% to US$214bn thanks to a 15% gold price increase in 2023.
As we look forward to 2024, we explore three economic scenarios and their likely impact on gold. Historically, gold has had a flat performance during consensus-favoured ‘soft landings’; however, geopolitical risks, central bank buying and the spectre of a recession may provide additional support for gold.
Central banks gold buying maintained a historic pace but fell short of the Q3’22 record. Jewellery demand softened slightly in the face of high gold prices, while the investment picture was mixed.