2024 began with continued outflows

Global gold ETFs began 2024 with outflows of US$2.8bn in January, extending their losing streak to eight months. North American (-US$2.3bn) led global outflows and Europe (-US$730mn) also experienced heavy losses. A bright spot in the data came via positive inflows from Asia (+US$214mn).

Gold Outlook 2024

As we look forward to 2024, we explore three economic scenarios and their likely impact on gold. Historically, gold has had a flat performance during consensus-favoured ‘soft landings’; however, geopolitical risks, central bank buying and the spectre of a recession may provide additional support for gold.

2023 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey

Following a historical high level of central bank gold buying, gold continues to be viewed favourably by central banks. Our 2023 survey revealed that 24% of central banks intend to increase their holding reserves in the next 12 months.

The banking crisis fuelled gold ETF inflows in March

Global physically backed gold ETFs saw net inflows of US$1.9bn in March - the first inflows for ten months - as the banking crisis fuelled demand. But the recent inflows were not enough to prevent a net quarterly outflow of US$1.5bn. Regionally, European funds accounted for the bulk of the global outflows in Q1.

Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2022

Colossal central bank purchases, aided by vigorous retail investor buying and slower ETF outflows, lifted annual demand to an 11-year high. Annual gold demand (excluding OTC) jumped 18% to 4,741t, almost on a par with 2011 – a time of exceptional investment demand. The strong full-year total was aided by record Q4 demand of 1,337t.