Research library

Risk appetite amid high uncertainty
As we look ahead, we expect that the interplay between market risk and economic growth will drive gold demand in 2020

The global bullion banking industry is large and well-established with annual revenues estimated at more than US$1.5bn. The market includes both international banks and smaller local players.

Gold demand was 1,123t in Q2, up 8% y-o-y. H1 demand jumped to a three-year high of 2,181.7t, largely due to record-breaking central bank purchases.

The first half of 2019 proved quite eventful for financial markets. Stocks retraced their Q4 2018 losses by the end of April only to pullback again in May.

Gold demand lifted by central banks and ETFs. This compares with a relatively weak Q1 2018, when demand sank to a three-year low of just 984.2t. Central bank buying continued apace: global gold reserves grew by 145.5t.

Following the launch of the AAOIFI Shari’ah Standard on Gold in 2016, we have engaged with Islamic banks and financial institutions to develop the market for Shari’ah-compliant gold-backed products. As part of this we undertook research to understand how investors view Islamic finance, their attitudes towards gold, and preferences for gold-backed products.

The upcoming Fed meeting could provide clarity into the intermediate-term price behavior of gold. As uncertainty becomes more prevalent in the future behavior of the Federal Reserve, we examine whether there is any correlation with monetary policy uncertainty/behavior and gold prices.