芮强 （John Reade）

Slow gold supply responses to the surging price raised concerns of its sustainability. And while “easy” gold mines might be depleted gradually, reserves should stay stable. And above-ground gold stocks should – though not all accessible – also help underpin total supply’s stability. Meanwhile, large gold mine discoveries should have limited short-term impact on the gold price. And coordinated production changes remain improbable.

Global gold mining has been stable in recent years. Despite short-term impacts stemming from the pandemic, safety stoppages and industrial action, mined gold production averaged a near zero annual y/y change between 2018 and 2024. 

The gold market has seen a significant rise in COMEX gold inventories, along with a widening of the spread between futures and spot prices, sparked by tariff uncertainty. This, combined with reports of falling inventories in London, has fuelled speculation about stability in the gold market

Over the past five years, gold and bitcoin have provided strong returns. There is no question that bitcoin has offered significant upside (and sometimes downside) - but at what cost as compared to gold?

This quarter the stand-out story has been Turkey, where exceptional demand has had a material effect on global gold flows. Bar and coin demand, central bank gold holdings and OTC flows were all noticeably affected by what has happened in Turkey during the year so far.

A spate of bank failures in March could be the first serious cracks to appear as a result of unprecedented monetary tightening. As a crisis hedge, gold is responding as expected. Read more here…

I recently presented virtually at Pension Bridge Alternatives APAC - Mid Year Review, and discussed gold's strategic role in a portfolio. 

Gold has fallen more than US$100/oz over the past month, with the bulk of the decline occurring over two days last week.

John Reade recently joined Fidelity International's MoneyTalk podcast for a conversation on gold.

Spot #gold is trading around $1827/oz with a $0.30/oz bid-ask spread on Friday morning in London.

Although it bounced after stronger US inflation data, it couldn't hold those gains as yields firmed late in the day.

But let's look at a slightly longer term perspective...