Juan Carlos Artigas

Gold’s volatility has markedly increased in 2026; however, similar episodes have occurred in periods of risk with volatility usually normalising within a few months. Bid-ask spreads have also notably risen since 2024; however, barring unusually high spikes in off market hours, the gold market still offers sizable liquidity through record trading volumes and two-way market activity. Amid a visible increase in the bond-equity correlation, gold remains a valuable strategic asset and portfolio diversifier even when accounting for its higher volatility environment.

Gold is not currently classified as an HQLA under Basel III, but its performance during time of crisis rivals that of intermediate and long-term Treasuries. In this context, gold is an HQLA in all but name.

The gold market has seen a significant rise in COMEX gold inventories, along with a widening of the spread between futures and spot prices, sparked by tariff uncertainty. This, combined with reports of falling inventories in London, has fuelled speculation about stability in the gold market

Gold has reached continuous highs in March and is trading close to US$2,200/oz. While this can be partly explained by a weaker USD, higher risk and momentum, other factors such as ‘technicals’ and OTC activity likely accelerated the move.

Gold finished the year on a high, literally and metaphorically, as the LBMA Gold Price PM reached a new historical record of US$2,078.40/oz on 28 December – the final afternoon auction of 2023.

Investors often ask us if the gold price experiences any seasonal effects. The short answer is that gold tends to do well, on average, in both January and late summer. Reasons behind these effects can be linked to portfolio rebalancing, bond performance and seasonal gold demand.

Many of the investors we talk to feel that gold’s performance should be much stronger considering multi-decade high inflation across the world

Gold surged past US$2,000/oz earlier this week, nearly reaching the previous 2020 record. This time, though, it was driven by continued concerns about the war in Ukraine, swelling commodity prices, and, more generally, the potential implications for the global economy. And while the gold price has come down from the week’s high, it’s still approximately 4% higher month-to-date. Against this backdrop, we are addressing the three questions investors have asked us most frequently in recent days.

We recently hosted a conversation with Institutional Investor and Ned Naylor-Leyland, Jupiter Asset Management’s Head of Gold and Silver, to discuss gold performance in the current rate environment and the broader outlook for 2021.

Listen to the conversation on gold’s performance drivers and its role as a strategic portfolio asset.

Our Head of Research explores recent events, looking at how they have impacted on gold in the short term and the key questions now facing investors moving forward.

This blog explores a common question we have been getting 'how much influence will the US election have on gold demand and its performance?"

Watch this discussion on the role that an allocation to gold can play, the outlook for gold and more.

Last week, I had a great conversation with Matthew McLennan, of First Eagle Investment Management, organized by Institutional Investor about the increasingly relevant role alts are playing in portfolios.

Juan Carlos Artigas, our Head of Research, joins this Institutional Investor forum 'Be Careful What You Wish For - When Volatility Becomes Your Frenemy: Risk, Volatility and Liquidity in Today's Institutional Portfolios'.