Gold Demand Trends

Gold Demand Trends Q1 2015

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Categories: Supply and demand, Investment

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In a generally quiet quarter, global demand dipped 1% to 1,079t. However, the gold market’s complex eco-system was well balanced in Q1 2015. Conditions differed from market to market but at an aggregate level, these differences broadly cancelled out. Growth in India and the US could not prevent a modest downtick in jewellery demand; light inflows into ETFs, the first since 2012, led to growth in investment.

The contrast between the global picture and the more granular demand data clearly demonstrates the multi-faceted nature of the gold market. The numerous and varying roles that gold plays means it responds to different cues in different ways, smoothing out the fluctuations occurring at a more localised level. Some of those localised fluctuations during the first quarter were challenging. Weaker economic growth, higher prices and rallying stock markets gave consumers in some markets reason to reappraise their gold buying intentions.

Key demand data

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Positive ETF inflows

ETFs (+26t) benefited from improved Western investor attitudes towards gold; Q1 2015 was the first quarter of positive net purchases since Q4 2012. Bar and coin demand, 10% weaker year-on-year, remains elevated compared with historical levels.

Supply Remains

Mine production grew by 2% year-on-year to 729.2t, but is expected to tail off in the second half of 2015. The 3% drop in recycling was largely due to continued shrinkage in western markets.

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Global gold demand was down just 11 tonnes (t) compared with Q1 2014. Moderate changes in demand at the sector level broadly cancelled out, as did variations in demand across different markets.

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Alistair Hewitt, Head of Market Intelligence is interviewed on the findings of the World Gold Council’s Q1 2015 Gold Demand Trends report.

Gold Demand Trends, explained

This video explains how we create Gold Demand Trends, the leading industry resource for gold demand data. We explain how our unique position in the gold industry gives us unparalleled market insight and how we work to understand evolving consumer behaviours, identify emerging trends, and apply our knowledge and experience to provide a complete view of the gold market.

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Demand statistics (in tonnes and value)

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      2013 2014 2015 Q1'15 vs Q1'14
Tonnes 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q4 Q1 % chg
Jewellery 2,670.7 2,457.2 822.9 628.4 614.7 620.2 590.2 591.6 655.1 600.8 -3
Technology 354.1 346.5 93.9 87.0 83.6 81.9 86.4 87.9 90.4 80.4 -2
Electronics 248.4 277.6 65.3 61.4 59.1 65.0 68.9 70.7 73.0 63.7 -2
Other Industrial 82.7 49.0 22.5 20.0 19.3 11.5 12.6 12.3 12.6 12.0 4
Dentistry 23.0 19.9 6.1 5.6 5.2 5.3 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 -11
Investment 785.9 820.6 162.3 202.2 161.3 268.0 199.2 182.9 170.6 278.8 4
Total bar and coin demand 1,702.0 1,004.4 593.8 320.9 346.5 281.5 237.1 223.4 262.5 253.1 -10
Physical Bar demand 1,335.8 726.0 472.0 262.4 261.4 201.3 170.0 166.9 187.9 193.5 -4
Official Coin 266.3 204.6 85.8 42.2 67.0 64.4 49.2 36.1 54.9 45.0 -30
Medals/Imitation Coin 99.9 73.8 36.1 16.4 18.0 15.8 17.9 20.4 19.7 14.6 -8
ETFs & similar products* -916.0 -183.8 -431.5 -118.7 -185.2 -13.5 -37.9 -40.5 -91.9 25.7 -
Central bank & other inst. 625.5 588.0 166.5 138.9 150.0 119.8 157.2 176.7 134.2 119.4 0
Gold demand 4,436.3 4,212.4 1,245.6 1,056.4 1,009.6 1,089.9 1,033.0 1,039.2 1,050.4 1,079.3 -1
LBMA Gold Price, US$/oz 1,411.2 1,266.4 1,414.8 1,326.3 1,276.2 1,293.1 1,288.4 1,281.9 1,201.4 1,218.5 -6
      2013 2014 2015 Q1'15 vs Q1'14
US$mn 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 % chg
Jewellery 121,176.1 100,048.6 37,430.0 26,795.2 25,218.9 25,784.3 24,449.5 24,384.9 25,305.3 23,534.1 -9
Technology 16,068.0 14,108.8 4,271.7 3,707.9 3,430.9 3,403.8 3,577.3 3,621.5 3,492.4 3,147.8 -8
Electronics 11,272.1 11,303.6 2,970.8 2,617.6 2,426.1 2,704.3 2,853.8 2,913.8 2,819.1 2,493.5 -8
Other Industrial 3,752.3 1,994.3 1,024.9 852.5 790.7 478.1 520.8 506.5 487.4 468.5 -2
Dentistry 1,043.6 810.9 276.0 237.9 214.0 221.4 202.7 201.2 186.0 185.8 -16
Investment 35,659.5 33,412.1 7,384.3 8,621.1 6,617.1 11,140.9 8,249.5 7,538.7 6,588.4 10,921.4 -2
Total bar and coin demand 77,221.7 40,895.6 27,010.2 13,684.1 14,215.3 11,702.1 9,819.5 9,207.9 10,138.2 9,914.6 -15
Physical Bar demand 60,607.7 29,560.1 21,468.4 11,188.0 10,725.4 8,368.3 7,042.3 6,877.1 7,256.1 7,580.5 -9
Official Coin 12,080.5 8,331.4 3,900.9 1,797.4 2,751.0 2,676.1 2,037.4 1,489.9 2,121.2 1,761.2 -34
Medals/Imitation Coin 4,533.5 3,004.0 1,640.8 698.7 739.0 657.7 739.8 840.9 760.8 573.0 -13
ETFs & similar products* -41,562.3 -7,483.5 -19,625.8 -5,063.0 -7,598.2 -561.2 -1,569.9 -1,669.2 -3,549.7 1,006.8 -
Central bank & other inst. 28,379.3 23,942.4 7,573.9 5,922.0 6,154.9 4,982.1 6,511.7 7,284.7 5,185.5 4,678.9 -6
Gold demand 201,282.9 171,511.9 56,660.0 45,046.2 41,421.8 45,311.1 42,788.1 42,829.7 40,571.6 42,282.1 -7

 

*For a listing of the Exchange Traded Funds and similar products click here for more information.

Source: Metals Focus, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council

 

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