Gold Demand Trends Q3 2015

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Categories: Gold mining and sustainable development, Supply and demand, Jewellery, Investment, Technology, Reserve asset management

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Third quarter gold demand rose by 8% year-on-year, reaching a two-year high of 1,120.9 tonnes. Q3 2015 was a period of two distinct halves: ETF outflows contributed to a price dip in July, which boosted consumer demand around the world. Subsequently, a positive shift in institutional investor attitudes led to modest ETF inflows in August and September, which pushed prices back up. Central banks bought another 175.0 tonnes, in recognition of gold’s diversification benefits. And after a long period of growth, the supply of gold from mine production contracted by 1% in the third quarter.

GDT Q3 2015 - Phase 2 - infographic

GDT Q3 2015 - Phase 1 - infographic

GDT Q3 2015 - Consumers eye the price - infographic

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Year-on-year changes in gold demand, by category

During a period of two distinct halves, gold demand climbed 8% to 1,120.9t as bar and coin demand drove gains. Jewellery grew 6% year-on-year. Central banks again bought in bulk, but ETF holdings declined a little.

Gold’s price drop steered Q3 jewellery demand to a 6% increase

After a weak first half-year, the jewellery market sparked into life in July. Global demand for jewellery reached 631.9t, the strongest third quarter since 2008 and 13% above the long-term average.

US gold Eagle coin sales rose to levels not seen since the financial crisis

US investors displayed a heightened level of price-sensitivity as Q3 investment demand doubled in response to the price fall. The US Mint reported the highest sales of gold Eagle coins for more than five years.

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Gold Demand Trends Q3 2015 - video

Alistair Hewitt, Head of Market Intelligence and Krishan Gopaul discuss the findings of the World Gold Council’s Q3 2015 Gold Demand Trends report.

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Demand statistics (in tonnes and value)

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      2013 2014 2015 Q3'15 vs Q3'14
Tonnes 2013 2014 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 % chg
Jewellery 2,669.1 2,461.4 615.4 617.0 593.3 594.1 657.0 603.4 514.9 631.9 6
Technology 354.3 346.4 84.4 82.2 86.3 87.6 90.3 81.6 83.5 84.3 -4
Electronics 248.6 277.5 59.7 65.3 68.8 70.4 72.9 64.9 66.1 67.1 -5
Other Industrial 82.7 49.0 19.5 11.5 12.6 12.3 12.6 11.9 12.6 12.4 1
Dentistry 23.0 19.9 5.2 5.3 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.7 -3
Investment 784.8 819.1 161.3 269.9 199.1 180.7 169.3 275.6 178.7 229.7 27
Total bar and coin demand 1,700.8 1,002.2 346.7 281.6 237.1 222.2 261.3 250.6 202.3 295.7 33
Physical Bar demand 1,334.8 725.4 261.6 201.7 170.4 166.2 187.1 190.9 151.7 199.0 20
Official Coin 266.1 204.5 67.1 64.4 49.2 36.1 54.9 45.4 38.2 76.1 111
Medals/Imitation Coin 99.8 72.2 18.0 15.5 17.5 19.9 19.3 14.3 12.4 20.5 3
ETFs & similar products1 -915.9 -183.1 -185.3 -11.6 -38.0 -41.5 -92.0 25.1 -23.5 -65.9 -
Central banks & other inst. 625.5 590.5 150.0 119.8 157.2 179.5 133.9 122.9 127.9 175.0 -3
Gold demand 4,433.7 4,217.4 1,011.1 1,089.0 1,035.9 1,041.9 1,050.6 1,083.6 905.0 1,120.9 8
LBMA Gold Price, US$/oz 1,411.2 1,266.4 1,276.2 1,293.1 1,288.4 1,281.9 1,201.4 1,218.5 1,192.4 1,124.3 -12
      2013 2014 2015 Q3'15 vs Q3'14
US$mn 2013 2014 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 % chg
Jewellery 121,102.7 100,216.1 25,248.1 25,652.5 24,574.3 24,485.2 25,376.2 23,638.8 19,739.3 22,841.2 -7
Technology 16,074.2 14,104.2 3,464.2 3,415.6 3,575.4 3,609.9 3,489.7 3,197.1 3,201.6 3,045.5 -16
Electronics 11,277.2 11,299.0 2,451.3 2,716.1 2,851.8 2,902.2 2,816.3 2,543.9 2,534.8 2,425.2 -16
Other Industrial 3,753.3 1,994.3 798.9 478.1 520.8 506.5 487.4 467.4 483.6 448.7 -11
Dentistry 1,043.6 811.0 214.0 221.4 202.7 201.2 186.0 185.8 183.2 171.5 -15
Investment 35,610.3 33,348.9 6,618.8 11,221.0 8,247.9 7,447.9 6,540.6 10,798.1 6,851.6 8,304.1 11
Total bar and coin demand 77,167.1 40,804.5 14,223.1 11,705.0 9,820.1 9,159.8 10,093.5 9,816.6 7,753.3 10,687.2 17
Physical Bar demand 60,564.2 29,536.4 10,731.3 8,384.8 7,058.1 6,852.0 7,226.9 7,478.9 5,813.7 7,195.1 5
Official Coin 12,072.8 8,328.1 2,752.5 2,676.3 2,037.6 1,486.0 2,121.4 1,777.1 1,464.1 2,750.1 85
Medals/Imitation Coin 4,530.1 2,940.0 739.4 643.8 724.4 821.8 745.2 560.6 475.5 742.1 -10
ETFs & similar products1 -41,556.8 -7,455.6 -7,604.4 -484.0 -1,572.1 -1,711.9 -3,553.0 981.5 -901.7 -2,383.1 -
Central bank & other inst. 28,379.3 24,043.7 6,154.9 4,982.1 6,511.7 7,400.1 5,173.5 4,813.1 4,902.2 6,327.1 -14
Gold demand 201,166.4 171,712.9 41,485.9 45,271.2 42,909.4 42,943.2 40,580.0 42,447.1 34,694.7 40,517.9 -6

 

 

1For a listing of the Exchange Traded Funds and similar products click here for more information.

Source: Metals Focus, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council

 

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