Research library

In 2017, investors added gold to their portfolios as incomes increased, uncertainty loomed, and gold’s positive price momentum continued. As 2018 begins we explore four key market trends and their implications for gold.

Welcome to the winter edition of Gold Investor, where leading commentators and market participants discuss new developments for gold and its evolving global role.

This report covers key stages in the hallmarking journey in order to ascertain what works best in other jurisdictions and how India can maximise the benefits of mandatory hallmarking. 

Changes are afoot in the technology sector. Smartphones are becoming increasingly powerful, electric and self-driving vehicles could revolutionise the automotive industry, and emerging nanotechnology could transform solar energy. All of this could have a positive impact on gold demand.

Welcome to the autumn edition of Gold Investor, where leading commentators and market participants discuss new developments for gold and its evolving global role.

On 1st July, India’s labyrinth of taxes will be replaced with a simple, nationwide Goods & Services Tax (GST). This is the biggest fiscal reform since India’s liberalisation in the early 1990s. While gold consumers will face a slightly higher tax rate, and the industry will go through a period of adjustment, we see the net impact on the gold industry as being positive. The gold supply chain should become more transparent and efficient, and the tax reform can boost economic growth, which we see as supporting gold demand.

A barrage of policy initiatives aimed at purging India of black money and instilling greater transparency rocked India’s economy last year, including its gold market. The most dramatic was the radical decision to demonetise over 15 trillion rupees, around US$220bn. 

In 2015 India was the world’s fast growing economy; in recent years millions have been lifted out of poverty and India’s middle class has swelled. This is important because our econometric analysis indicates income growth drives gold demand. 

China has gone through remarkable change in the past 30 years. Within one generation, the shape of our economy has altered beyond all recognition: agriculture’s share of output has fallen and the service sector has become an important driver of growth.

Financial markets have fallen sharply in response to Donald Trump’s election as the 45th President of the United States. Equity markets are down notably in Asian and early European trading.