Research library

The strong gold price performance was a positive for investors and producers, and was symptomatic of a more profound shift in sentiment: a growing recognition of gold’s role as a wealth preservation and risk mitigation tool. This goes to the heart of our strategy to make gold a mainstream asset.

Gold demand rallied in the closing months of 2017, gaining 6% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 1,095.8 tonnes (t) in Q4. But it was too little, too late: full year demand fell by 7% to 4,071.7t. 

The third quarter saw a 9% year-on-year (y-o-y) drop in gold demand to 915 tonnes (t). Year-to-date (y-t-d) demand was down by 12%.  ETFs had another quarter of positive inflows, but at 18.9t, they fell far short of the 144.3t influx in Q3 2016. 

Q2 gold demand of 953.4t was 10% lower than 2016, while H1 demand slowed 14% to 2,003.8t. 

The gold market is broad and complex, so producing statistics on demand and supply is challenging. But having such statistics is crucial to understanding the fundamentals of the market. 

2016 full-year gold demand gained 2% to reach a 3-year high of 4,308.7t. Annual inflows into ETFs reached 531.9t, the second highest on record. Declines in jewellery and central bank purchases offset this growth.

In 2015 India was the world’s fast growing economy; in recent years millions have been lifted out of poverty and India’s middle class has swelled. This is important because our econometric analysis indicates income growth drives gold demand. 

Continued growth in Q2 2016 (+15%) brought total H1 gold demand to 2,335t – the second highest first half on record.

Gold demand reached 1,290 tonnes Q1 2016, a 21% increase year-on-year, making it the second largest quarter on record.