Research library

The gold market is broad and complex, so producing statistics on demand and supply is challenging. But having such statistics is crucial to understanding the fundamentals of the market. 

A barrage of policy initiatives aimed at purging India of black money and instilling greater transparency rocked India’s economy last year, including its gold market. The most dramatic was the radical decision to demonetise over 15 trillion rupees, around US$220bn. 

2016 full-year gold demand gained 2% to reach a 3-year high of 4,308.7t. Annual inflows into ETFs reached 531.9t, the second highest on record. Declines in jewellery and central bank purchases offset this growth.

In 2015 India was the world’s fast growing economy; in recent years millions have been lifted out of poverty and India’s middle class has swelled. This is important because our econometric analysis indicates income growth drives gold demand. 

China has gone through remarkable change in the past 30 years. Within one generation, the shape of our economy has altered beyond all recognition: agriculture’s share of output has fallen and the service sector has become an important driver of growth.

Continued growth in Q2 2016 (+15%) brought total H1 gold demand to 2,335t – the second highest first half on record.

Gold demand reached 1,290 tonnes Q1 2016, a 21% increase year-on-year, making it the second largest quarter on record.

Third quarter gold demand rose by 8% year-on-year, reaching a two-year high of 1,120.9 tonnes. Q3 2015 was a period of two distinct halves: ETF outflows contributed to a price dip in July, which boosted consumer demand around the world.

Alistair Hewitt, Head of Market Intelligence is interviewed on the findings of the World Gold Council’s Q2 2015 Gold Demand Trends report.