Climate change is both a physical reality and a rapidly growing systemic and existential risk that all aspects of society are currently learning to address. It is now widely understood that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must therefore decrease very rapidly – ultimately, to ‘Net Zero’ – if we are to avoid potentially catastrophic consequences. The process of decarbonising the economy is such an urgent priority that it is currently reshaping nearly all policy, business, and investment decisions.
Transitory or not, inflation is already impacting consumers
Gold fell slightly during August, down 0.6% in US dollars, on modestly firmer interest rates following strong US jobs data.
Reflation is good for commodities and even better for gold.
The current global economic landscape indicates improving economic conditions, higher inflation and rates expectations, as well as commodity supply shortages which are likely to support commodity performance.
Equity yields support gold as investors position for historical September strength
Q2 gold demand flat, H1 down 10%
Strong consumer demand recovery and Q2 gold ETF inflows were not enough to offset heavy Q1 outflows.
As the global economy emerges from an unprecedented shutdown, both policymakers and investors are operating in uncharted territory. To better understand investor strategies during this important transitional period, we interviewed approximately 500 institutional investors around the world about their portfolios, allocations and views on markets, gold and other individual asset classes.
Interest rates will likely remain key drivers of financial assets. Gold is no exception. Yet, the negative impact of higher rates will likely be offset by the longer lasting effects and unintended consequences of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies created to support the global economy.
Inflation fears and momentum ignite gold
Gold registered healthy positive returns for the second consecutive month, erasing the losses accumulated during Q1. Gold ended May at US$1,899.95/oz – its highest level since January and back above its 200-day moving average – representing a 7.5% m-o-m increase.
Inflation, falling yields and the US dollar pushed gold higher
Marking a turnaround from the first three months of the year, gold rebounded 4.5% in April to finish the month at US$1,768/oz - its highest monthly closing level since January and its first positive monthly return since December 2020.
Strengthening consumer demand mitigated the impact of ETF outflows as global economies continued to recover