Gold ended August lower m-o-m, down 2% to US$1,715.9/oz – its fifth consecutive monthly decline. The promising bounce that began in mid-July ran out of steam in mid-August after failing to break the US$1,800/oz resistance level.
Gold fell 3.5% in July, leaving it down 2.9% on the year at US$1,753/oz. A strong US dollar and sticky real yields weighed on gold in the first half of July.
Gold demand softened in Q2. Despite Q2 weakness, strong first quarter ETF inflows fuelled a notable H1 recovery Gold demand (excluding OTC) was 8% lower y-o-y at 948t. Combined with Q1 this took H1 demand to 2,189t, up 12% y-o-y.
Investors face a challenging environment during the second half of 2022, needing to navigate rising interest rates, high inflation and resurfacing geopolitical risks. In the near term, gold will likely remain reactive to real rates, which in turn will respond to the speed at which global central banks tighten monetary policy and their effectiveness in controlling inflation.
Weaker investor interest weighed on gold in May
Throughout April, gold remained among the best performing assets in 2022 up 5% in US dollar terms – yet it ended the month 1.6% lower at US$1,911/oz.
Gold market sees solid start to 2022
Q1 gold demand was 34% above Q1 2021, driven by strong ETF inflows. In a quarter that saw the US dollar gold price rise by 8%, gold demand (excluding OTC) increased 34% y-o-y to 1,234t – the highest since Q4 2018 and 19% above the five-year average of 1,039t.
Gold rose for the second consecutive quarter in Q1, ending 8% higher at US$1,942/oz – its best quarterly performance since Q2 2020.