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Weak Q4 set the seal on an 11-year low for annual 2020 gold demand

The COVID-19 pandemic raised uncertainty by both compounding existing risks while creating new ones. But by the end of last year, investors were optimistic that the worst was over. 

Gold-backed exchange-traded funds and similar products (gold ETFs) have flourished since their introduction in 2003, attracting both institutional and retail investors across the globe. Recently, gold has become globally accepted as a strategic asset amidst a high-risk and low-rate environment spurring investment demand and the expansion of the gold-ETF market.

Demand for gold loans, both through banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) has grown in response to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Strong growth in global investment demand for gold in Q3 partly offset weakness elsewhere as COVID-19 remained in the driving seat.

In this paper, we seek to answer those questions by assessing how gold lease rates have been affected in the past through changes in the demand to borrow gold and the supply of gold available for lending.

Record H1 inflows into gold-backed ETFs offset weakness in all other sectors of the market, with demand hit by the ongoing global coronavirus pandemic.

Gold has been on a generally positive trend for the past few years. However, the onset of the global COVID-19 pandemic has made gold’s relevance as a hedge even more apparent and accelerated its price performance. Gold increased by 17% during the first half of 2020, moving up by an additional 10% in July.  

Gold benefits from diverse sources of demand: as an investment, a reserve asset, a luxury good and a technology component. It is highly liquid, no one’s liability, carries no credit risk, and is scarce, historically preserving its value over time.

The COVID pandemic and the ensuing economic lockdowns around the world have slashed global growth forecasts in 2020, but expectations of the speed of the economic recovery are quite varied. We analyse the potential performance of gold across four hypothetical scenarios provided by Oxford Economics.