11th June 1998
Consensus that European Central Bank should hold 10-15% of its
reserves in gold
At a press conference following
the inaugural meeting of the European Central Banks (ECBs)
Governing Council, its President, Wim Duisenberg, stated that,
although a formal decision on the matter had yet to be taken, a consensus
existed for the ECB to hold between 10% and 15% of its reserves in gold.
Although the price fell back some $6 on the news, it had recovered somewhat
by the close. One important reason for the fall was that rumours - based
on no objective facts - had been circulating earlier in the day that the
figure would be 27.5% (very much at the high end of any previous guesstimates).
There was naturally an adverse reaction when Duisenberg quoted a lower
total.
Despite the initial market disappointment, the news is positive for gold:
- The ECB is the worlds most modern central bank. For it to include
a respectable amount of gold in its portfolio is a significant vote
of confidence in golds continuing role as a monetary asset.
- The majority of member states gold will remain in national hands.
Contrary to some commentators statements, however, this does not
mean that they will be free to do whatever they like with it.
Members remaining foreign reserves are all potentially callable
by the ECB and are thus in effect controlled by the System. This is
why the ECB will draw up guidelines outlining the freedom national central
banks will have to transact independently. Above a certain yet-to-be
determined amount, they will have to seek the ECBs approval and
it is hard to believe that the latter will - certainly in the Banks
early years - countenance large-scale sales which could have an impact
on the value of its own holdings.
- It is very significant that Duisenberg - in his scripted remarks and
not simply as an impromptu answer to a question - referred to gold at
all. The Council has been urging the ECB to be as transparent as possible
in its policy towards gold in order to minimize market uncertainty.
Given that no statement at all was necessary until a formal decision
has been taken, it appears that he may have been listening to our arguments.
In summary, the statement confirms that European central bankers view
gold as a respectable - indeed, indispensable - reserve asset for the
21st century. |